剑桥 IGCSE IGCSE, A-Level & AP 练习单预览

经济指标与经济周期

AP 宏观经济学 · 第 2 主题

训练
讲义 词汇表
2.1

循环流动模型与国内生产总值
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

MEA-1
An economy's performance can be measured by different indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.

MEA-1.A
a. Define (using the circular flow diagram as appropriate) how GDP is measured and its components.
b. Calculate nominal GDP.

  • MEA-1.A.1 GDP is a measure of final output of the economy.
  • MEA-1.A.2 GDP as a total flow of income and expenditure can be represented by the circular flow diagram.
  • MEA-1.A.3 There are three ways of measuring GDP: the expenditures approach, the income approach, and the value-added approach.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

循环流动模型(circular-flow model)显示钱在家庭和企业之间移动:家庭供应要素并赚取收入;企业出售物品并赚取收入。每一美元的花费都是某人的收入,这就是为什么产出和收入是同一个总量的两面。

收入的循环流动,带它的漏出和注入
收入的循环流动,带它的漏出和注入

国内生产总值(GDP)(gross domestic product)是一年在一个国家之内生产的所有最终物品和服务的市场价值。测量它的三种方式给出相同的数字:

  • 支出法: $GDP = C + I + G + X_n$ ——消费(consumption)、投资(investment)(企业对资本的花费,加新住房和存货)、政府购买(government purchases),和净出口(net exports)(出口减进口)。
  • 收入法: 加起所有的工资、租金、利息和利润。

排除中间物品(避免重复计算)、二手物品、纯金融交易,和转移支付。

探索

Follow money around the circular flow

Money flows from households to firms (spending) and back (wages), while injections (investment, government, exports) and leakages (saving, taxes, imports) can grow or shrink the flow — the size of that flow is GDP.

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
circular-flow model 循环流动模型 xún huán liú dòng mó xíng
Gross domestic product (GDP) 国内生产总值 guó nèi shēng chǎn zǒng zhí
consumption 消费 xiāo fèi
investment 投资 tóu zī
government purchases 政府购买 zhèng fǔ gòu mǎi
net exports 净出口 jìng chū kǒu
练习卷
2.2

国内生产总值的局限性
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

MEA-1
An economy's performance can be measured by different indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.

MEA-1.B
Define the limitations of GDP.

  • MEA-1.B.1 GDP is a useful indicator of a nation's economic performance, but it has some limitations, such as failing to account for nonmarket transactions.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

GDP 测量市场产出,不是福祉。它遗漏非市场生产(无偿家务、志愿服务)、地下经济(underground economy)、闲暇,和收入的分配,而且它忽略环境损害和资源耗竭。所以一个更高的 GDP 不自动意味着一个更好的生活水平。人均 GDP(GDP $\div$ 人口)是一个比总 GDP 更好的福利替代。

人均 GDP 显示平均产出但遗漏分配、无偿工作等
人均 GDP 显示平均产出但遗漏分配、无偿工作等
词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
underground economy 地下经济 dì xià jīng jì
练习卷
2.3

失业
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

MEA-1
An economy's performance can be measured by different indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.

MEA-1.C
a. Define the labor force, the unemployment rate, and the labor force participation rate.
b. Explain how changes in employment and the labor market affect the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate.
c. Calculate the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate.

  • MEA-1.C.1 The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is out of work.
  • MEA-1.C.2 The labor force participation rate is another measure of the labor market activity in an economy. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force.

MEA-1.D
Define the limitations of the unemployment rate.

  • MEA-1.D.1 The measured unemployment rate is often criticized for understating the level of joblessness because it excludes groups such as discouraged workers and part-time workers.

MEA-1.E
a. Define the types of unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment.
b. Explain changes in the types of unemployment.

  • MEA-1.E.1 Economists primarily focus on three types of unemployment: cyclical, frictional, and structural.
  • MEA-1.E.2 The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate that would exist when the economy produces full-employment real output. It is equal to the sum of frictional and structural unemployment.
  • MEA-1.E.3 The deviation of the actual unemployment rate from the natural rate is cyclical unemployment.
  • MEA-1.E.4 The natural rate of unemployment can gradually change over time because of such things as changes in labor force characteristics.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

劳动力(labor force)是就业者加失业者(unemployed)(没有工作但正在积极寻找的人)。不寻找的人不在劳动力里。

三种失业类型:摩擦性、结构性和周期性
三种失业类型:摩擦性、结构性和周期性
$$\text{Unemployment rate}=\frac{\text{unemployed}}{\text{labor force}}\times 100\%,\qquad \text{Labor-force participation}=\frac{\text{labor force}}{\text{working-age population}}\times100\%.$$

Worked example. 一个国家有 $150$ 百万就业和 $10$ 百万失业(积极寻找),带 $40$ 百万不寻找的工作年龄成人。劳动力是 $150+10=160$ 百万,所以失业率是 $\dfrac{10}{160}=6.25\%$ 而参与率是 $\dfrac{160}{200}=80\%$。

三种失业类型:

  • 摩擦性失业(frictional):工作之间或寻找第一份工作(正常、短)。
  • 结构性失业(structural):技能或位置不匹配可用的工作(技术、贸易)。
  • 周期性失业(cyclical):由一次衰退造成(经济周期的一次下行)。

摩擦性 + 结构性构成自然失业率(natural rate of unemployment)。在自然率处周期性失业是零而经济处于充分就业(full employment)。这个率低估失业,因为它遗漏灰心工人(discouraged workers)和未充分就业者(underemployed)。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
labor force 劳动力 láo dòng lì
Frictional 摩擦性失业 mó cā xìng shī yè
Structural 结构性失业 jié gòu xìng shī yè
Cyclical 周期性失业 zhōu qī xìng shī yè
natural rate of unemployment 自然失业率 zì rán shī yè lǜ
full employment 充分就业 chōng fèn jiù yè
discouraged workers 灰心工人 huī xīn gōng rén
练习卷
2.4

价格指数与通货膨胀
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

MEA-1
An economy's performance can be measured by different indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.

MEA-1.F
a. Define the consumer price index (CPI), inflation, deflation, disinflation, the inflation rate, and real variables.
b. Explain how price indices can be used to calculate the inflation rate and to compare nominal variables over time periods.
c. Calculate the CPI, the inflation rate, and changes in real variables.

  • MEA-1.F.1 The consumer price index (CPI) measures the change in income a consumer would need in order to maintain the same standard of living over time under a new set of prices as under the original set of prices.
  • MEA-1.F.2 The CPI measures the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services in a given year relative to the base year.
    • Exclusion statement: Calculating the producer price index (PPI) is beyond the scope of the course and AP Exam.
  • MEA-1.F.3 The inflation rate is determined by calculating the percentage change in a price index, such as CPI or the GDP deflator.
  • MEA-1.F.4 Real variables, such as real wages, are the nominal variables deflated by the price level.

MEA-1.G
Define the shortcomings of the CPI as a true measure of inflation.

  • MEA-1.G.1 The CPI as a measure of inflation has some shortcomings, such as substitution bias, causing it to overstate the true inflation rate.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

通货膨胀(inflation)是平均价格水平的一次持续上升。它用一个价格指数(price index)测量,最常是消费者价格指数(CPI)(consumer price index),从一个典型家庭购买的一个固定的市场篮子物品构建:

AD-AS 图上的需求拉动和成本推动通货膨胀
AD-AS 图上的需求拉动和成本推动通货膨胀
$$CPI=\frac{\text{cost of basket this year}}{\text{cost of basket in base year}}\times100.$$

通货膨胀率(inflation rate)是指数在两年之间的百分比变化。通货紧缩(deflation)是一个下降的价格水平;反通货膨胀(disinflation)是通货膨胀的一次减慢。

Worked example. 若 CPI 今年是 $200$ 而去年是 $190$,通货膨胀率是 $\dfrac{200-190}{190}\times100\%=5.3\%$。那时值 $\$190$ 的一个篮子现在值 $\$200$ ——相同的物品、更多的美元。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Inflation 通货膨胀 tōng huò péng zhàng
price index 价格指数 jià gé zhǐ shù
consumer price index (CPI) 消费者价格指数 xiāo fèi zhě jià gé zhǐ shù
Deflation 通货紧缩 tōng huò jǐn suō
练习卷
2.5

通货膨胀的成本
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

MEA-1
An economy's performance can be measured by different indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.

MEA-1.H
Explain the costs that unexpected inflation (deflation) imposes on individuals and the economy.

  • MEA-1.H.1 Unexpected inflation arbitrarily redistributes wealth from one group of individuals to another group, such as lenders to borrowers.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

通货膨胀再分配并扭曲:

  • 当它意外时它伤害放贷者和储蓄者并帮助借款者,因为贷款以更便宜的美元偿还。它侵蚀货币和固定收入的价值。
  • 菜单成本(menu costs)和不确定性阻碍投资。
  • 预期的通货膨胀较不有害,因为合同和利率为它调整。这就是为什么我们把名义和实际值分开。
练习卷
2.6

实际国内生产总值与名义国内生产总值
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

MEA-1
An economy's performance can be measured by different indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.

MEA-1.I
Define nominal GDP and real GDP.

  • MEA-1.I.1 Nominal GDP is a measure of how much is spent on output. Real GDP is a measure of how much is produced.
  • MEA-1.I.2 Nominal GDP measures aggregate output using current prices. Real GDP measures aggregate output using constant prices, thus removing the effect of changes in the overall price level.

MEA-1.J
Calculate real GDP and the GDP deflator.

  • MEA-1.J.1 One way of measuring real GDP is to weigh final goods and services by their prices in a base year. Because this can lead to overstatement of real GDP growth, statistical agencies actually use different methods.
  • MEA-1.J.2 Nominal GDP can be converted to real GDP by using the GDP deflator.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

  • 名义GDP(nominal GDP)以当前价格计价,所以它随产出和价格上升。
  • 实际GDP(real GDP)以恒定(基年)价格计价,剥离通货膨胀,所以它反映真正的产出。实际 GDP 是增长的诚实衡量。
$$\text{Real GDP}=\frac{\text{Nominal GDP}}{\text{price index}}\times100,\qquad \text{GDP deflator}=\frac{\text{Nominal GDP}}{\text{Real GDP}}\times100.$$

Worked example. 名义 GDP 是 $\$22$ 万亿而 GDP 平减指数是 $110$。实际 GDP 是 $\dfrac{22}{110}\times100=\$20$ 万亿。额外的 $\$2$ 万亿的名义 GDP 是纯的价格上升,不是实际产出——这就是为什么增长总是用实际 GDP 测量。

考试技能: 熟练地用一个价格指数把名义转换成实际,并作为一个百分比变化计算一个通货膨胀率或一个增长率。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Nominal GDP 名义 míng yì
Real GDP 实际 shí jì
练习卷
2.7

经济周期
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

MEA-2
The economy fluctuates between periods of expansion and contraction in the short run, but economic growth can occur in the long run.

MEA-2.A
a. Define (using graphs and data as appropriate) turning points and phases of the business cycle.
b. Explain (using graphs and data as appropriate) turning points and phases of the business cycle.

  • MEA-2.A.1 Business cycles are fluctuations in aggregate output and employment because of changes in aggregate supply and/or aggregate demand.
  • MEA-2.A.2 The phases of a business cycle are recession and expansion.
  • MEA-2.A.3 The turning points of a business cycle are peak and trough.
  • MEA-2.A.4 The difference between actual output and potential output is the output gap.
  • MEA-2.A.5 Potential output is also called full-employment output. It is the level of GDP where unemployment is equal to the natural rate of unemployment. [See EK MEA-1.E.2]

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

经济周期

经济周期(business cycle)是经济在它长期增长趋势周围实际 GDP 的短期起伏:扩张(expansion)(上升的产出、下降的失业)直到一个顶峰(peak),然后收缩/衰退(contraction/recession)(下降的产出、上升的周期性失业)向下到一个谷底(trough),然后复苏(recovery)。一次衰退常常是实际 GDP 下降的两个连续季度。失业和通货膨胀在周期上大致相反地移动——课程其余部分试图管理的那个张力。

实际 GDP 围绕它的长期趋势摆动
实际 GDP 围绕它的长期趋势摆动
词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
business cycle 经济周期 jīng jì zhōu qī
expansion 扩张 kuò zhāng
peak 顶峰 dǐng fēng
contraction/recession 衰退 shuāi tuì
trough 谷底 gǔ dǐ
练习卷
2.7

考试技巧
  • 用支出法 $C+I+G+X_n$ 计算 GDP 并只数最终物品(避免重复计算)。
  • 失业率 = 失业 ÷ 劳动力;灰心工人离开劳动力(所以这个率能低估失业)。
  • 知道三种失业类型(摩擦性、结构性、周期性)以及自然率排除周期性。
  • 通货膨胀是 CPI 的 % 变化;用一个价格指数把名义转换成实际并总是用实际 GDP 求增长。
  • 把事件放在经济周期上(扩张 → 顶峰 → 收缩 → 谷底)。

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