稳定政策的长期影响

AP 宏观经济学 · 第 5 主题

训练

讲义词汇表

5.1

短期内的财政与货币政策行动

大纲

Enduring Understanding	Learning Objective	Essential Knowledge
POL-1 Fiscal and monetary policy have short-run effects on macroeconomic outcomes.	POL-1.F Explain (using graphs as appropriate) the effects of combined fiscal and monetary policy actions.	POL-1.F.1 A combination of expansionary or contractionary fiscal and monetary policies may be used to restore full employment when the economy is in a negative (i.e., recessionary) or positive (i.e., inflationary) output gap. POL-1.F.2 A combination of fiscal and monetary policies can influence aggregate demand, real output, the price level, and interest rates. [For additional details on fiscal and monetary policy actions and how to demonstrate their effects graphically, see LO POL-1.A and LO POL-1.D.]

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

两个政策在短期都通过移动 AD 起作用。财政政策(fiscal policy)改变政府支出或税收;货币政策(monetary policy)改变货币供给因而利率。它们能一起工作(两者都扩张性以对抗一次深的衰退)或被混合(例如宽松财政 + 紧货币)。在短期,扩张性政策提高产出和价格水平并降低失业;紧缩性政策做相反的。

探索

Use policy to shift aggregate demand

In the short run, fiscal (spending/taxes) and monetary (interest-rate) policy shift aggregate demand, moving real GDP and the price level along short-run aggregate supply.

词汇表训练

英文	中文	拼音
Fiscal policy	财政政策	cái zhèng zhèng cè
monetary policy	货币政策	huò bì zhèng cè

练习卷

5.2

菲利普斯曲线

大纲

Enduring Understanding	Learning Objective	Essential Knowledge
MOD-3 The Phillips curve model is used to represent the relationship between inflation and unemployment and to illustrate how macroeconomic shocks affect inflation and unemployment.	MOD-3.A a. Define (using graphs as appropriate) the short-run Phillips curve and the long-run Phillips curve. b. Explain (using graphs as appropriate) short-run and long-run equilibrium in the Phillips curve model.	MOD-3.A.1 The short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment can be illustrated by the downward-sloping short-run Phillips curve (SRPC). MOD-3.A.2 An economy is always operating somewhere along the SRPC. MOD-3.A.3 The long-run relationship between inflation and unemployment can be illustrated by the long-run Phillips curve (LRPC), which is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. MOD-3.A.4 Long-run equilibrium corresponds to the intersection of the SRPC and the LRPC. MOD-3.A.5 Points to the left of long-run equilibrium represent inflationary gaps, while points to the right of long-run equilibrium represent recessionary gaps.
	MOD-3.B Explain (using graphs as appropriate) the response of unemployment and inflation in the short run and in the long run.	MOD-3.B.1 Demand shocks correspond to movement along the SRPC. MOD-3.B.2 Supply shocks correspond to shifts of the SRPC. MOD-3.B.3 Factors that cause the natural rate of unemployment to change will cause the LRPC to shift.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

短期菲利普斯曲线

菲利普斯曲线(Phillips curve)显示通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡:

短期和长期菲利普斯曲线

短期菲利普斯曲线(SRPC)(short-run Phillips curve)向下倾斜——更低的失业伴随更高的通货膨胀。它是 AD-AS 的镜像:一次向右的 AD 移动使经济沿 SRPC 向上-左移动(更少失业、更多通货膨胀)。
长期菲利普斯曲线(LRPC)(long-run Phillips curve)在自然失业率(natural rate of unemployment)处是竖直的——竖直 LRAS 的对应物。在长期没有权衡:政策改变通货膨胀,不是失业。
一次供给冲击使 SRPC 移动(一次负的冲击使它右移——更糟的通货膨胀和失业,即滞胀)。预期通货膨胀的一个变化也使 SRPC 移动。

考试技能: 把 AD-AS 和菲利普斯图联系起来——AD-AS 里的一个衰退缺口对应 SRPC 上自然率右侧的一个点;知道什么使 SRPC 移动与沿它移动。

词汇表训练

英文	中文	拼音
Phillips curve	菲利普斯曲线	fēi lì pǔ sī qū xiàn
short-run Phillips curve (SRPC)	短期菲利普斯曲线	duǎn qī fēi lì pǔ sī qū xiàn
long-run Phillips curve (LRPC)	长期菲利普斯曲线	cháng qī fēi lì pǔ sī qū xiàn
natural rate of unemployment	自然失业率	zì rán shī yè lǜ

练习卷

5.3

货币增长与通货膨胀

大纲

Enduring Understanding	Learning Objective	Essential Knowledge
POL-3 There are long-run implications of monetary and fiscal policy.	POL-3.A a. Explain (using graphs as appropriate) how inflation is a monetary phenomenon. b. Define the quantity theory of money. c. Calculate the money supply, velocity, the price level, and real output using the quantity theory of money.	POL-3.A.1 Inflation (deflation) results from increasing (decreasing) the money supply at too rapid of a rate for a sustained period of time. POL-3.A.2 When the economy is at full employment, changes in the money supply have no effect on real output in the long run. POL-3.A.3 In the long run, the growth rate of the money supply determines the growth rate of the price level (inflation rate) according to the quantity theory of money.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

在长期,通货膨胀是一个货币现象。货币数量论(quantity theory of money)陈述 $M\times V = P\times Y$(货币供给 $\times$ 流通速度 $=$ 价格水平 $\times$ 实际产出)。以流通速度 $V$ 和实际产出 $Y$ 在长期大致稳定,货币供给的增长几乎一对一地转换成通货膨胀。印钱比经济增长更快提高价格水平,不是实际产出——高通货膨胀的根源,而在极端情况下,恶性通货膨胀(hyperinflation)。

Worked example. 假设货币供给每年增长 $8\%$ 而实际产出 $Y$ 增长 $3\%$ 且流通速度 $V$ 稳定。把 $M\times V=P\times Y$ 重新排列成增长率,通货膨胀 $\approx 8\%-3\%=5\%$。不被额外产出匹配的那 $5\%$ 的货币增长简单地变成更高的价格。

More money chasing goods: sustained money growth tends to raise the price level over time

探索

Link money growth to inflation

The quantity theory $MV=PY$: with output and velocity roughly fixed, the price level moves in proportion to the money supply — too much money chasing the same goods is inflation.

词汇表训练

英文	中文	拼音
quantity theory of money	货币数量论	huò bì shù liàng lùn
hyperinflation	恶性通货膨胀	è xìng tōng huò péng zhàng

练习卷

5.4

政府赤字与国家债务

大纲

Enduring Understanding	Learning Objective	Essential Knowledge
POL-3 There are long-run implications of monetary and fiscal policy.	POL-3.B a. Define the government budget surplus (deficit) and national debt. b. Explain the issues involved with the burden of the national debt.	POL-3.B.1 The government budget surplus (deficit) is the difference between tax revenues and government purchases plus transfer payments in a given year. POL-3.B.2 A government adds to the national debt when it runs a budget deficit. POL-3.B.3 A government must pay interest on its accumulated debt, thus increasing the national debt and increasingly forgoing using those funds for alternative uses. [See also LO POL-3.C on crowding out.]

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

一个预算赤字(budget deficit)在一年里政府支出超过税收时发生(一个盈余(surplus)是相反的)。过去赤字的累积总和是国债(national debt)。赤字由借款——出售政府债券——融资,它增加债务和未来的利息支付。持续的赤字引起对挤出和偿还债务负担的顾虑。

Bond and equity markets: government borrowing competes for loanable funds and can crowd out private investment

词汇表训练

英文	中文	拼音
budget deficit	预算赤字	yù suàn chì zì
surplus	盈余	yíng yú
national debt	国债	guó zhài

练习卷

5.5

挤出效应

大纲

Enduring Understanding	Learning Objective	Essential Knowledge
POL-3 There are long-run implications of monetary and fiscal policy.	POL-3.C a. Define crowding out. b. Explain (using graphs as appropriate) how fiscal policy may cause crowding out.	POL-3.C.1 When a government is in budget deficit, it typically borrows to finance its spending. POL-3.C.2 A loanable funds market model can be used to show the effect of government borrowing on the equilibrium real interest rate and the resulting crowding out of private investment. [See MKT-4] POL-3.C.3 Crowding out refers to the adverse effect of increased government borrowing, which leads to decreased levels of interest-sensitive private sector spending in the short run. POL-3.C.4 A potential long-run impact of crowding out is a lower rate of physical capital accumulation and less economic growth as a result.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

挤出效应(crowding out)是赤字融资财政政策的主要长期成本。当政府大量借款时,它增加对可贷资金的需求,提高实际利率。更高的利率减少私人投资(和利率敏感的消费)。所以扩张性财政政策部分地抵消它自己:AD 提振被更弱的投资抵消。更糟的是,今天更少的投资意味着一个更小的资本存量和更慢的长期增长。

政府借款提高利率并挤出私人投资

考试技能: 在可贷资金图上显示挤出——政府借款使需求右移,实际利率上升,而私人投资下降。

Worked example. 一个政府借 $\$500$ 十亿来为一个赤字融资。在可贷资金市场上这使对资金的需求右移,把实际利率推高(比如说从 $3\%$ 到 $4\%$)。在更高的利率企业缩减投资——也许 $\$150$ 十亿——所以对 AD 的净提振小于 $\$500$ 十亿,而失去的投资减慢长期增长。

词汇表训练

英文	中文	拼音
Crowding out	挤出效应	jǐ chū xiào yìng

练习卷

5.6

经济增长

大纲

Enduring Understanding	Learning Objective	Essential Knowledge
MEA-2 The economy fluctuates between periods of expansion and contraction in the short run, but economic growth can occur in the long run.	MEA-2.B a. Define measures and determinants of economic growth. b. Explain (using graphs and data as appropriate) the determinants of economic growth. c. Calculate (using graphs and data as appropriate) per capita GDP and economic growth.	MEA-2.B.1 Economic growth can be measured as the growth rate in real GDP per capita over time. MEA-2.B.2 Aggregate employment and aggregate output are directly related because firms need to employ more workers in order to produce more output, holding other factors constant. This is captured by the aggregate production function. MEA-2.B.3 Output per employed worker is a measure of average labor productivity. MEA-2.B.4 Productivity is determined by the level of technology and physical and human capital per worker. MEA-2.B.5 The aggregate production function shows that output per capita is positively related to both physical and human capital per capita.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

经济增长(economic growth)是人均实际 GDP 的一次持续上升——更高生活水平的真正来源。它来自更多或更好的资源,并显示为 LRAS 的一次右移(和 PPC 的一次向外移动)。它的主要驱动力:

经济增长使生产可能性曲线向外移动

实物资本(physical capital)(每个工人更多的工具和机器),
人力资本(human capital)(教育、技能、健康),
技术(technology)和创新,
生产率(productivity)(每个工人的产出)增长,最深的驱动力。

探索

Economic growth pushes the frontier out

Economic growth — more resources, better technology — shifts the whole production possibilities frontier outward, letting the economy produce more of everything.

词汇表训练

英文	中文	拼音
Economic growth	经济增长	jīng jì zēng zhǎng
physical capital	实物资本	shí wù zī běn
human capital	人力资本	rén lì zī běn
technology	技术	jì shù
productivity	生产率	shēng chǎn lǜ

练习卷

5.7

公共政策与经济增长

大纲

Enduring Understanding	Learning Objective	Essential Knowledge
POL-4 Authorities and organizations institute policies that affect economic growth.	POL-4.A a. Explain (using graphs as appropriate) public policies aimed at influencing long-run economic growth. b. Define supply-side fiscal policies. [For a description of economic growth and information about how to show it graphically, see LO MEA-2.B, LO MOD-1.B, and LO MOD-2.I]	POL-4.A.1 Public policies that impact productivity and labor force participation affect real GDP per capita and economic growth. POL-4.A.2 Government policies that invest in infrastructure and technology affect growth. POL-4.A.3 Supply-side fiscal policies affect aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and potential output in the short run and long run by influencing incentives that affect household and business economic behavior.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

政府能通过建立资本和生产率的政策提高长期增长:对基础设施和教育的投资、研究与开发激励、保护产权(property rights)和法治、鼓励储蓄和投资(它为资本融资),并保持通货膨胀低而稳定。反复出现的长期主题:挤出或阻碍投资的政策减慢增长,而那些鼓励资本形成的加速它。

词汇表训练

英文	中文	拼音
property rights	产权	chǎn quán

练习卷

5.7

考试技巧

短期菲利普斯曲线显示通货膨胀-失业权衡;长期曲线在自然率处是竖直的。
在长期通货膨胀是一个货币现象(货币增长超过产出增长 → 通货膨胀)。
在可贷资金图上显示挤出:政府借款提高实际利率并削减私人投资。
增长来自更多/更好的资源——实物资本、人力资本、技术——使 LRAS 右移。
一次供给冲击使通货膨胀和失业朝相同方向移动(滞胀),不像一次需求冲击。

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