Business Cycles · 经济周期
| English | 中文 | Pinyin · 拼音 |
|---|---|---|
| business cycle/ˈbɪznəs ˈsaɪkl/ | 经济周期 | jīng jì zhōu qī |
| expansion/ekˈspænʃn/ | 扩张 | kuò zhāng |
| peak/piːk/ | 顶峰 | dǐng fēng |
| contraction/kənˈtrækʃn/ | 收缩 | shōu suō |
| recession/rɪˈseʃn/ | 经济衰退 | jīng jì shuāi tuì |
| trough/trɒf/ | 谷底 | gǔ dǐ |
| output gap/ˈaʊtpʊt ɡæp/ | 产出缺口 | chǎn chū quē kǒu |
| potential output/pəˈtenʃl ˈaʊtpʊt/ | 潜在产出 | qián zài chǎn chū |
| recessionary gap/rɪˈseʃənəri ɡæp/ | 衰退缺口 | shuāi tuì quē kǒu |
| inflationary gap/ɪnˈfleɪʃənəri ɡæp/ | 通货膨胀缺口 | tōng huò péng zhàng quē kǒu |
| stabilization policy/ˌsteɪbɪlaɪˈzeɪʃn ˈpɒlɪsi/ | 稳定政策 | wěn dìng zhèng cè |
Booms and busts
- Real GDP does not climb in a smooth straight line.
- It rises and falls in a repeating up-and-down pattern.
- Booms feel great; busts throw people out of work.
- This rhythm is the business cycle 经济周期.
繁荣与萧条
- 实际 GDP 不会沿一条平滑的直线上升。
- 它以一种反复的上下起伏的模式涨落。
- 繁荣时感觉很好;萧条时把人们抛出工作。
- 这种节律就是经济周期(business cycle)。
The four phases
- Expansion 扩张 — real GDP rises, jobs grow, unemployment falls.
- Peak 顶峰 — the highest point of output, where expansion ends.
- Contraction 收缩 — real GDP falls for a sustained period; unemployment rises. A recession 经济衰退 is often two straight quarters of falling real GDP.
- Trough 谷底 — the lowest point, where the fall stops and recovery begins.
四个阶段
- 扩张(expansion)——实际 GDP 上升,就业增加,失业下降。
- 顶峰(peak)——产出的最高点,扩张在此结束。
- 收缩(衰退)(contraction / recession)——实际 GDP 持续下降;失业上升。经济衰退(recession)常指实际 GDP 连续两个季度下降。
- 谷底(trough)——最低点,下降在此停止,复苏开始。
Which phase of the cycle? · 周期的哪个阶段?
The business cycle runs expansion → peak → contraction → trough. Each phase has a distinct pattern of output and unemployment. · 经济周期依次是扩张 → 顶峰 → 收缩 → 谷底。每个阶段的产出与失业都有各自的特征。
A recession is often defined as: · 经济衰退常被定义为:
A contraction where real GDP falls for a sustained period — often two quarters — is a recession. · 实际 GDP 持续下降的收缩——常为两个季度——就是衰退。
Put the four phases of the business cycle in order, starting from an expansion. · 把经济周期的四个阶段从扩张开始按顺序排列。
The cycle runs expansion → peak → contraction → trough, then repeats. · 周期依次是扩张 → 顶峰 → 收缩 → 谷底,然后重复。
During an expansion, cyclical unemployment usually: · 在扩张期间,周期性失业通常:
Rising output means firms hire more, so cyclical unemployment falls. · 产出上升意味着企业多雇人,所以周期性失业下降。
The output gap
- Potential output 潜在产出 is the real GDP an economy would make at full employment.
- The output gap 产出缺口 = actual real GDP − potential real GDP.
- A recessionary gap 衰退缺口 (actual below potential): running cold, high unemployment.
- An inflationary gap 通货膨胀缺口 (actual above potential): running hot, rising prices.
产出缺口
- 潜在产出(potential output)是一个经济体在充分就业时会生产的实际 GDP。
- 产出缺口(output gap)= 实际 GDP − 潜在 GDP。
- 衰退缺口(recessionary gap,实际低于潜在):运行偏冷,高失业。
- 通货膨胀缺口(inflationary gap,实际高于潜在):运行过热,价格上涨。
When actual real GDP is below potential, the economy has a ______ gap. · 当实际 GDP 低于潜在时,经济存在一个______缺口。
A recessionary gap means the economy runs cold, with high unemployment. · 衰退缺口意味着经济偏冷,伴随高失业。
Why we measure it
- Worked idea. Potential real GDP is 1,200b; in a slump actual real GDP is 1,140b, so the output gap is $1{,}140 - 1{,}200 = -60$b — a recessionary gap.
- A negative gap signals idle workers and factories.
- Governments try to smooth the swings with stabilization policy 稳定政策 — adjusting spending, taxes, or interest rates.
- The whole point of measuring GDP, unemployment, and inflation is to spot which gap we are in.
我们为什么衡量它
- 例题。 潜在实际 GDP 是 1,200 十亿;萧条中实际 GDP 是 1,140 十亿,所以产出缺口是 $1{,}140 - 1{,}200 = -60$ 十亿——一个衰退缺口。
- 负缺口意味着闲置的工人和工厂。
- 政府用稳定政策(stabilization policy)——调整支出、税收或利率——来平滑这些波动。
- 衡量 GDP、失业和通胀的全部意义,就是判断我们处在哪个缺口。
Potential real GDP is 1,200 and actual real GDP is 1,140. What is the output gap? (keep the sign) · 潜在实际 GDP 是 1,200,实际 GDP 是 1,140。产出缺口是多少?(保留符号)
Output gap = actual − potential = 1,140 − 1,200 = −60 — a recessionary gap. · 产出缺口 = 实际 − 潜在 = 1,140 − 1,200 = −60——衰退缺口。
Governments use stabilization policy to try to smooth the swings of the business cycle. · 政府用稳定政策来试图平滑经济周期的波动。
By adjusting spending, taxes, or interest rates, policy pushes output back toward potential. · 通过调整支出、税收或利率,政策把产出推回潜在水平。
The business cycle has four phases: expansion, peak, contraction (recession), and trough. Compare actual to potential output: a recessionary gap (below) means the economy runs cold, an inflationary gap (above) means it runs hot. Stabilization policy aims to close the gap.
经济周期有四个阶段:扩张、顶峰、收缩(衰退)和谷底。把实际与潜在产出相比:衰退缺口(低于)意味着经济偏冷,通货膨胀缺口(高于)意味着过热。稳定政策旨在缩小缺口。