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人口与迁移的格局与过程

AP 人文地理 · 第 2 主题

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Population and Migration Patterns and Processes

Eight billion people live on this planet. Now look at this street. At one crossing in Tokyo, hundreds of them share a space the size of a school hall.…

英文讲解 · 内嵌中英文字幕

讲义 双页 词汇表 双页 词汇测验 2 双页 词汇测验 3 双页
2.1 2.2

人口分布
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

PSO-2
Understanding where and how people live is essential to understanding global cultural, political, and economic patterns.

PSO-2.A
Identify the factors that influence the distribution of human populations at different scales.

  • PSO-2.A.1 Physical factors (e.g., climate, landforms, water bodies) and human factors (e.g., culture, economics, history, politics) influence the distribution of population.
  • PSO-2.A.2 Factors that illustrate patterns of population distribution vary according to the scale of analysis.

PSO-2.B
Define methods geographers use to calculate population density.

  • PSO-2.B.1 The three methods for calculating population density are arithmetic, physiological, and agricultural.

PSO-2.C
Explain the differences between and the impact of methods used to calculate population density.

  • PSO-2.C.1 The method used to calculate population density reveals different information about the pressure the population exerts on the land.
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

PSO-2
Understanding where and how people live is essential to understanding global cultural, political, and economic patterns.

PSO-2.D
Explain how population distribution and density affect society and the environment.

  • PSO-2.D.1 Population distribution and density affect political, economic, and social processes, including the provision of services such as medical care.
  • PSO-2.D.2 Population distribution and density affect the environment and natural resources; this is known as carrying capacity.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

人在地球上分布得很不均匀。人口分布(population distribution)描述人们住在哪里;人口密度(population density)测量一个地方多拥挤。大多数人聚集在少数有利的地方:中纬度、低洼的土地、海岸,和有水和肥沃土壤的河谷。

成百上千的人同时穿过一个宽阔的十字路口,填满了它的每一处
东京一个挤满人的人行横道:城市把人拉进一小块地方,形成极高的人口密度

地理学家用三种密度衡量:

  • 算术密度(arithmetic density)——总人数 ÷ 总土地面积。
  • 生理密度(physiological density)——人数 ÷ 可耕(arable)(可种植)土地的面积;对食物供应压力的一个更好的向导。
  • 农业密度(agricultural density)——农民 ÷ 可耕地;一个低值暗示更高效、机械化的农业。

不均匀的分布造成后果:拥挤的地区使住房、水和服务紧张,而空的地区可能难以提供道路和学校。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Population distribution/ˌpɒpjʊˈleɪʃn ˌdɪstrɪˈbjuːʃn/ 人口分布 rén kǒu fēn bù
population density/ˌpɒpjʊˈleɪʃn ˈdensɪti/ 人口密度 rén kǒu mì dù
Arithmetic density/əˈrɪθmətɪk ˈdensɪti/ 算术密度 suàn shù mì dù
Physiological density/ˌfɪzɪəˈlɒdʒɪkl ˈdensɪti/ 生理密度 shēng lǐ mì dù
Agricultural density/ˌæɡrɪˈkʌltʃərəl ˈdensɪti/ 农业密度 nóng yè mì dù
练习卷 2.1 · Population Distribution 双页 练习卷 2.2 · Consequences of Population Distribution 双页
2.3

人口构成
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

PSO-2
Understanding where and how people live is essential to understanding global cultural, political, and economic patterns.

PSO-2.E
Describe elements of population composition used by geographers.

  • PSO-2.E.1 Patterns of age structure and sex ratio vary across different regions and may be mapped and analyzed at different scales.

PSO-2.F
Explain ways that geographers depict and analyze population composition.

  • PSO-2.F.1 Population pyramids are used to assess population growth and decline and to predict markets for goods and services.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

解读人口金字塔

人口构成(population composition)是一个人口按年龄和性别的组成。它显示在一个人口金字塔(population pyramid)上——男性和女性以五年年龄组(age cohorts)的背对背条形图。

三种人口金字塔形状:快速增长、缓慢增长和衰退
一个宽的基座意味着快速增长;直的侧面意味着缓慢增长;一个窄的基座意味着衰退
  • 一个宽的基座意味着高出生率和快速增长(许多年轻人)。
  • 直的侧面意味着缓慢、稳定的增长。
  • 一个窄的基座带一个宽的中间意味着一个老龄化、收缩的人口。

抚养比(dependency ratio)把受抚养者(15 岁以下和 64 岁以上)与工作年龄人口比较——一个高的比使支持他们的工人紧张。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Population composition/ˌpɒpjʊˈleɪʃn ˌkɒmpəˈzɪʃn/ 人口构成 rén kǒu gòu chéng
population pyramid/ˌpɒpjʊˈleɪʃn ˈpɪrəmɪd/ 人口金字塔 rén kǒu jīn zì tǎ
age cohorts/eɪdʒ ˈkəʊhɔːts/ 年龄组 nián líng zǔ
dependency ratio/dɪˈpendənsi ˈreɪʃɪəʊ/ 抚养比 fǔ yǎng bǐ
练习卷 双页
2.4

人口动态
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

IMP-2
Changes in population are due to mortality, fertility, and migration, which are influenced by the interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, and political factors.

IMP-2.A
Explain factors that account for contemporary and historical trends in population growth and decline.

  • IMP-2.A.1 Demographic factors that determine a population’s growth and decline are fertility, mortality, and migration.
  • IMP-2.A.2 Geographers use the rate of natural increase and population-doubling time to explain population growth and decline.
  • IMP-2.A.3 Social, cultural, political, and economic factors influence fertility, mortality, and migration rates.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

人口通过出生、死亡和迁移变化。关键率(每年每 1,000 人):

  • 粗出生率(CBR)(crude birth rate)和粗死亡率(CDR)(crude death rate)。
  • 自然增长率(RNI)(rate of natural increase)= (CBR − CDR) ÷ 10,作为一个百分比——它忽略迁移。
  • 总和生育率(TFR)(total fertility rate)——每个妇女的平均孩子数;约 2.1 是更替水平(replacement level)。

倍增时间(doubling time)(一个人口翻倍的年数)≈ 70 ÷ RNI%。生育率的小变化有巨大的长期效应。

Worked example(一道真实的 AP 考题)。 "解释为什么同一个国家城市地区的自然增长率(RNI)可能与农村地区显著不同的一个原因。"(2023)满分答案:"在城市里,生活成本——住房、教育、托儿——更高,所以城市家庭往往生育更少的孩子。更少的出生降低了粗出生率,所以城市的 RNI 低于农村的 RNI,而农村的孩子仍帮助农活。" 注意答案的结构:命令词 Explain(解释)要求一条因果链,所以你必须说出原因并且把它一路追到 RNI。只给一个事实——"城市很贵"——得零分。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Crude birth rate (CBR)/kruːd bɜːθ reɪt/ 粗出生率 cū chū shēng lǜ
crude death rate (CDR)/kruːd deθ reɪt/ 粗死亡率 cū sǐ wáng lǜ
Rate of natural increase (RNI)/reɪt ɒv ˈnætʃərəl ˈɪŋkriːs/ 自然增长率 zì rán zēng zhǎng lǜ
Total fertility rate (TFR)/ˈtəʊtl fɜːˈtɪlɪti reɪt/ 总和生育率 zǒng hé shēng yù lǜ
replacement level/rɪˈpleɪsmənt ˈlevl/ 更替水平 gēng tì shuǐ píng
doubling time/ˈdʌblɪŋ taɪm/ 倍增时间 bèi zēng shí jiān
练习卷 双页
2.5

人口转变模型
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

IMP-2
Changes in population are due to mortality, fertility, and migration, which are influenced by the interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, and political factors.

IMP-2.B
Explain theories of population growth and decline.

  • IMP-2.B.1 The demographic transition model can be used to explain population change over time.
  • IMP-2.B.2 The epidemiological transition explains causes of changing death rates.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

人口转变模型

人口转变模型(DTM)(Demographic Transition Model)显示出生率和死亡率随着一个国家发展如何变化,通过五个阶段。

人口转变模型:五个阶段的出生率和死亡率
死亡率先下降,然后出生率;它们之间的差距是人口爆炸
  1. 阶段 1 ——高的、波动的 CBR 和 CDR;缓慢增长(前工业)。
  2. 阶段 2 —— CDR 下降(更好的食物、医药、卫生设施)而 CBR 保持高;人口爆炸。
  3. 阶段 3 —— CBR 下降(城市化、教育、女性工作);增长减慢。
  4. 阶段 4 ——低 CBR 和 CDR;人口稳定而大。
  5. 阶段 5 —— CBR 下降到 CDR 以下;人口衰退并老龄化。

相连的流行病学转变(epidemiological transition)描述随着一个国家经过 DTM,死亡的主要原因如何从传染病转向慢性、退行性疾病。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Demographic Transition Model (DTM)/ˌdeməˈɡræfɪk trænˈsɪʃn ˈmɒdl/ 人口转变模型 rén kǒu zhuǎn biàn mó xíng
epidemiological transition/ˌepɪˌdemɪəˈlɒdʒɪkl trænˈsɪʃn/ 流行病学转变 liú xíng bìng xué zhuǎn biàn
练习卷 双页
2.6

马尔萨斯理论
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

IMP-2
Changes in population are due to mortality, fertility, and migration, which are influenced by the interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, and political factors.

IMP-2.B
Explain theories of population growth and decline.

  • IMP-2.B.3 Malthusian theory and its critiques are used to analyze population change and its consequences.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

马尔萨斯理论及其批评

1798 年托马斯·马尔萨斯(Thomas Malthus)论证人口指数式(exponentially)增长而食物供应只线性(linearly)增长,所以人口会超过食物并被饥荒、疾病和战争抑制。

批评者说马尔萨斯低估了技术:绿色革命和现代农业巨大地提高了食物产出。新马尔萨斯主义者(neo-Malthusians)更新这个担忧以包括水、能源和其他有限资源。这个辩论是一个最爱的考试提示。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
exponentially/ˌekspəˈnenʃəli/ 指数式 zhǐ shù shì
linearly/ˈlɪnɪəli/ 线性 xiàn xìng
Neo-Malthusians/ˈniːəʊ mælˈθjuːzɪənz/ 新马尔萨斯主义者 xīn mǎ ěr sà sī zhǔ yì zhě
练习卷 双页
2.7

人口政策
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

SPS-2
Changes in population have long- and short-term effects on a place’s economy, culture, and politics.

SPS-2.A
Explain the intent and effects of various population and immigration policies on population size and composition.

  • SPS-2.A.1 Types of population policies include those that promote or discourage population growth, such as pronatalist, antinatalist, and immigration policies.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

政府试图用政策影响人口增长:

  • 鼓励生育(pro-natalist)政策在人口老龄化或收缩的地方鼓励生育(现金奖励、育儿假、托儿)——例如法国、日本。
  • 限制生育(anti-natalist)政策在增长被视为太快的地方阻止生育——例如印度的计划生育运动。

政策有意想不到的后果:强的限制生育政策能使性别比例失衡或加速老龄化,后来需要一个鼓励生育的回应。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Pro-natalist/prəʊ ˈneɪtəlɪst/ 鼓励生育 gǔ lì shēng yù
Anti-natalist/ˈænti ˈneɪtəlɪst/ 限制生育 xiàn zhì shēng yù
练习卷 双页
2.8 2.9

妇女与人口变化
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

SPS-2
Changes in population have long- and short-term effects on a place’s economy, culture, and politics.

SPS-2.B
Explain how the changing role of females has demographic consequences in different parts of the world.

  • SPS-2.B.1 Changing social values and access to education, employment, health care, and contraception have reduced fertility rates in most parts of the world.
  • SPS-2.B.2 Changing social, economic, and political roles for females have influenced patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration, as illustrated by Ravenstein’s laws of migration.
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

SPS-2
Changes in population have long- and short-term effects on a place’s economy, culture, and politics.

SPS-2.C
Explain the causes and consequences of an aging population.

  • SPS-2.C.1 Population aging is determined by birth and death rates and life expectancy.
  • SPS-2.C.2 An aging population has political, social, and economic consequences, including the dependency ratio.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

女性的地位是生育率最强的驱动力之一。随着女性教育和就业上升,女性结婚更晚并有更少的孩子,所以生育率下降——国家经过 DTM 的一个关键原因。

在另一端,人口老龄化(aging populations)(65 岁以上上升的份额)带来它们自己的挑战:更高的养老金和医疗成本、一个收缩的劳动力,和一个上升的抚养比。国家用更晚的退休、移民,或鼓励生育政策来回应。

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
aging populations/ˈeɪdʒɪŋ ˌpɒpjʊˈleɪʃnz/ 人口老龄化 rén kǒu lǎo líng huà
练习卷 2.8 · Women and Demographic Change 双页 练习卷 2.9 · Aging Populations 双页
2.10 2.11

迁移的原因
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

IMP-2
Changes in population are due to mortality, fertility, and migration, which are influenced by the interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, and political factors.

IMP-2.C
Explain how different causal factors encourage migration.

  • IMP-2.C.1 Migration is commonly divided into push factors and pull factors.
  • IMP-2.C.2 Push/pull factors and intervening opportunities/obstacles can be cultural, demographic, economic, environmental, or political.
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

IMP-2
Changes in population are due to mortality, fertility, and migration, which are influenced by the interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, and political factors.

IMP-2.D
Describe types of forced and voluntary migration.

  • IMP-2.D.1 Forced migrations include slavery and events that produce refugees, internally displaced persons, and asylum seekers.
  • IMP-2.D.2 Types of voluntary migrations include transnational, transhumance, internal, chain, step, guest worker, and rural-to-urban.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

迁移(migration)是一个永久移动到一个新位置。它由推力(push factors)(离开的理由:战争、贫困、灾害)和拉力(pull factors)(到达的理由:工作、安全、家庭)驱动。

推力把人们赶出;拉力把他们吸引到一个新地方
迁移决定跨越一个中间障碍权衡推力与拉力
  • 自愿迁移(voluntary migration)是出于选择,通常出于经济原因。
  • 强迫迁移(forced migration)是违背一个人的意愿——逃离危险的难民(refugees),或被灾害流离失所的人。
  • 拉文斯坦定律(Ravenstein's laws)描述格局:大多数移民移动短距离、分步,而且主要被经济拉力吸引。

迁移能是国际(在国家之间)或国内(在一个国家内,例如从农村到城市)。

Immigrants arriving in a new city: migration redistributes population and reshapes places
Immigrants arriving in a new city: migration redistributes population and reshapes places
探索

Push factor or pull factor?

A push factor drives people away from the origin; a pull factor draws them toward the destination.

词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
Migration/maɪˈɡreɪʃn/ 迁移 qiān yí
push factors/pʊʃ ˈfæktəz/ 推力 tuī lì
pull factors/pʊl ˈfæktəz/ 拉力 lā lì
Voluntary migration/ˈvɒləntəri maɪˈɡreɪʃn/ 自愿迁移 zì yuàn qiān yí
Forced migration/fɔːst maɪˈɡreɪʃn/ 强迫迁移 qiǎng pò qiān yí
refugees/ˈrefjuːdʒiːz/ 难民 nàn mín
练习卷 2.10 · Causes of Migration 双页 练习卷 2.11 · Forced and Voluntary Migration 双页
2.12

迁移的影响
大纲
Enduring UnderstandingLearning ObjectiveEssential Knowledge

IMP-2
Changes in population are due to mortality, fertility, and migration, which are influenced by the interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, and political factors.

IMP-2.E
Explain historical and contemporary geographic effects of migration.

  • IMP-2.E.1 Migration has political, economic, and cultural effects.

来源:美国大学理事会 AP 课程与考试说明

迁移重塑来源地和目的地两者。

  • 目的地获得工人和文化多样性,但可能面对住房和服务的压力和社会紧张。
  • 来源地可能失去熟练工人(一次人才外流(brain drain))但获得侨汇(remittances)——移民寄回家的钱,对许多国家是一个主要的收入来源。
  • 迁移改变两个地方的年龄和性别结构,因为移民常常是年轻的工作年龄成人。
New arrivals reshape cities: migration changes labour markets, culture and demographics in destination places
New arrivals reshape cities: migration changes labour markets, culture and demographics in destination places
词汇表 训练
英文 中文 拼音
brain drain/breɪn dreɪn/ 人才外流 rén cái wài liú
remittances/rɪˈmɪtənsɪz/ 侨汇 qiáo huì
练习卷 双页
2.12

考试技巧
  • 计算 RNI = (CBR − CDR) ÷ 10 作为一个百分比,并把倍增时间读作约 70 ÷ RNI。
  • 把一个人口金字塔的形状与生育率和 DTM 阶段联系起来——一个宽的基座意味着阶段 2。
  • 记住死亡率在出生率之前下降;那就是为什么阶段 2 增长最快。
  • 把推力与拉力、强迫与自愿分开;一个难民跨越一个边界,一个 IDP(境内流离失所者)不跨越。
  • 权衡迁移效应:侨汇帮助来源地,但人才外流和老龄化伤害它。

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