Government and the Macroeconomy
IGCSE Economics Topic 4 12:07 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
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Transcript
Imagine you are the government.
想象你就是政府。
You want the economy to grow faster. So you spend more, firms hire, and unemployment falls. Excellent.
你希望经济增长得更快，于是你多花钱，企业开始招人，失业率下降。
Then prices start rising, because everyone suddenly has money to spend.
太好了。 然后价格开始上涨，因为所有人突然都有钱可花。
You have hit your growth aim and broken your inflation aim with the same policy.
同一项政策， 让你达成了增长目标，却打破了通胀目标。
This is the central problem of macroeconomics: the aims pull against each other, and a government must balance them rather than win them all.
这就是宏观经济学的核心难题： 各项目标互相拉扯，政府只能在它们之间取得平衡，而不可能全部赢下来。
Welcome to Topic Four.
欢迎来到第四单元。
A government manages the whole economy — the macroeconomy — and it has five main aims.
政府管理的是整个经济——也就是宏观经济——它有五个主要目标。
Economic growth: the country makes more goods and services each year.
经济增长：国家每年生产出更多的物品和服务。
Full employment: almost everyone who wants a job has one.
充分就业：几乎每个想工作的人都有工作。
Price stability: prices rise only slowly, so inflation stays low.
价格稳定：价格上涨得很慢，所以通货膨胀保持在低水平。
Balance of payments stability: the money flowing in and out from trade is roughly even.
国际收支稳定：贸易带来的资金流入和流出大致相等。
And redistribution of income: sharing income more fairly, so the gap between rich and poor is not too wide.
收入再分配：让收入分配得更公平，使贫富差距不至于太大。
Learn all five.
五个都要记住。
And remember that these aims can conflict — fast growth can pull prices up, and so can cutting unemployment.
还要记住，这些目标之间会互相冲突——快速增长会把价格推上去，减少失业也会。
The government has three sets of tools, and the first is fiscal policy.
政府有三套工具，第一套是财政政策。
Fiscal policy means changing two things: government spending — money spent on schools, hospitals and roads — and taxation, the money taken from people and firms.
财政政策指的是改变两样东西： 政府支出——花在学校、医院和道路上的钱，以及税收——从个人和企业那里收上来的钱。
The budget sets spending against tax, and there are three possible outcomes.
预算把支出和税收放在一起对比，有三种可能的结果。
A budget deficit: spending is more than the tax raised, so the government must borrow.
预算赤字：支出多于收到的税， 所以政府必须借钱。
A budget surplus: the tax raised is more than the spending.
预算盈余：收到的税多于支出。
And a balanced budget, where the two are equal.
还有收支平衡，两者相等。
Deficit means spending more than you take in — the same word you would use for your own pocket money.
赤字就是花得比收进来的多——就跟你自己的零花钱是同一个词。
Taxes are grouped two ways, and students mix them up constantly.
税收有两种分类方式，而学生经常把它们弄混。
First, by what is taxed.
第一种是按照"对什么征税"。
A direct tax is paid straight to the government out of income or profit — income tax, corporation tax.
直接税是直接从收入或利润中交给政府的——比如所得税、企业所得税。
An indirect tax is added to the price of goods and paid when you spend — a sales tax.
间接税是加在物品价格上、你花钱时才交的——比如销售税。
Second, by how the rate changes with income.
第二种是按照"税率如何随收入变化"。
A progressive tax takes a bigger percentage from higher incomes, which helps redistribute income.
累进税从更高的收入中拿走更大的百分比， 这有助于收入再分配。
A proportional tax takes the same percentage from everyone.
比例税对所有人拿走相同的百分比。
A regressive tax takes a smaller percentage from higher incomes, so it hits the poor harder.
累退税从更高的收入中拿走更小的百分比，所以对穷人打击更大。
Progressive rises with income; regressive falls.
累进随收入上升，累退随收入下降。
So what does fiscal policy actually do?
那么财政政策到底做了什么？
To boost the economy — to raise growth and jobs — the government spends more, or cuts taxes.
要刺激经济——提高增长和就业——政府就多花钱，或者减税。
That raises total demand.
这会提高总需求。
But if demand grows too fast it causes inflation.
但如果需求增长太快，就会引起通货膨胀。
To slow the economy — to fight inflation — the government spends less, or raises taxes.
要给经济降温——对抗通胀——政府就少花钱，或者加税。
That lowers demand, but it can raise unemployment.
这会降低需求，但可能提高失业率。
Notice the shape of both answers: every policy has a cost on another aim.
注意这两个答案的形状是一样的：每一项政策都会在另一个目标上付出代价。
In an exam, always name the cost as well as the benefit.
考试时，要在说出好处的同时说出代价。
That is the difference between a two-mark answer and a four-mark one.
这就是两分答案和四分答案的区别。
Monetary policy is the central bank changing interest rates, and the money supply, to manage the economy.
货币政策，是中央银行通过改变利率和货币供给来管理经济。
The interest rate is two things at once: the cost of borrowing and the reward for saving.
利率同时是两样东西：借钱的成本，和储蓄的回报。
Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, so people and firms spend and invest more. Demand rises, giving more growth and more jobs — but perhaps more inflation.
利率降低，借钱更便宜，于是个人和企业花得更多、投资更多； 需求上升，带来更多增长和更多工作——但可能带来更多通胀。
Higher interest rates make borrowing dearer, so spending falls. Demand falls, giving less inflation — but perhaps more unemployment.
利率提高，借钱更贵，于是支出下降；需求下降，通胀更少——但可能带来更多失业。
The same trade-off again, run by a different institution: fiscal policy is the government, monetary policy is the central bank.
又是同一个取舍，只是执行的机构不同：财政政策是政府，货币政策是中央银行。
The third tool is supply-side policy, and it works differently.
第三套工具是供给侧政策，它的运作方式不一样。
Instead of moving demand, it tries to raise the amount the economy can produce, by improving the quantity and quality of the factors of production.
它不是去移动需求， 而是设法提高经济"能够"生产的数量，办法是改善生产要素的数量和质量。
Four methods.
有四种方法。
Education and training: better skills raise productivity.
教育与培训：技能更好，生产率更高。
Privatisation: selling state-owned firms to private owners, who may run them better.
私有化：把国有企业卖给私人所有者， 他们可能经营得更好。
Deregulation: removing rules that hold firms back.
放松管制：去掉束缚企业的规则。
And incentives: lower taxes on income and profit, so people work harder and firms invest more.
激励：降低对收入和利润的税，让人们更努力工作、企业更多投资。
This is the one policy that can raise growth and jobs and lower inflation at the same time.
这是唯一一种能同时提高增长和就业、又降低通胀的政策。
Its weakness — and the exam wants this — is that it works slowly.
它的缺点——考试就要考这一点——是见效很慢。
Economic growth is a rise in real GDP.
经济增长，是实际 GDP 的上升。
Gross domestic product is the total value of all goods and services a country produces in a year.
国内生产总值，是一个国家一年里生产的所有物品和服务的总价值。
And the word real is doing serious work: real GDP is GDP after the effect of rising prices has been removed, so it shows the true change in output.
而"实际"这个词非常关键：实际 GDP 是把价格上涨的影响剔除之后的 GDP， 所以它显示的是产出的真实变化。
Here is one to do.
来做一道题。
A country's real GDP was five hundred billion pounds last year and five hundred and fifteen billion this year.
某国去年的实际 GDP 是五千亿英镑，今年是五千一百五十亿英镑。
Growth is the change divided by the old value, times one hundred: fifteen over five hundred, which is three per cent.
增长率等于变化量除以原来的数值再乘一百：十五除以五百，等于百分之三。
And because that is real GDP, the three per cent is a true rise in output.
因为用的是实际 GDP，这百分之三是产出的真实上升。
If prices had risen but output had not, real GDP would not move, and growth would be zero.
如果只是价格涨了而产出没变，实际 GDP 就不会动，增长率就是零。
Real GDP does not rise smoothly. It moves through the business cycle, in four stages.
实际 GDP 并不是平稳上升的，它沿着经济周期运动，分为四个阶段。
Boom: fast growth, output and jobs are high, but prices rise quickly.
繁荣：增长很快，产出和就业都很高，但价格上涨也很快。
Recession: output falls and jobs are lost — often defined as falling real GDP for six months.
衰退：产出下降，工作岗位减少——常见的定义是实际 GDP 连续下降六个月。
Slump: the bottom of the cycle, very low output and high unemployment.
萧条：周期的谷底，产出极低、失业率很高。
And recovery: output starts to rise again.
复苏：产出重新开始上升。
The good effects of growth: higher incomes, more jobs, better living standards, and more tax for the government to spend.
增长从哪里来？ 来自更多或更好的生产要素——对新机器的投资、 更大或技能更高的劳动力、新技术。
But give the bad effects too: prices may rise, the gap between rich and poor may grow, and there may be more pollution.
好的影响是：收入更高、工作更多、 生活水平更好，政府也有更多税收可以花。 但也要写出坏的影响： 价格可能上涨、贫富差距可能扩大，还可能带来更多污染和更多稀缺资源的消耗。
Unemployment means people who can work and want to work, but cannot find a job.
失业，指的是有能力工作、也想工作，却找不到工作的人。
There are two ways to measure it.
有两种衡量方式。
The claimant count counts people who claim unemployment benefit — and it misses everyone who wants work but cannot claim.
失业救济申领人数，统计的是申领失业救济金的人——它会漏掉所有想工作却不能申领的人。
The labour force survey asks people directly: it counts those who are not working, are looking for work, and are ready to start.
劳动力调查是直接去问人：统计那些没有工作、正在找工作、并且随时可以开始工作的人。
The labour force is everyone working plus everyone unemployed and looking.
劳动力等于所有在工作的人，加上所有失业并且在找工作的人。
Try the numbers.
来算一下数字。
A country has twenty-four million people in work and two million unemployed and looking.
某国有两千四百万人在工作，两百万人失业并在找工作。
The labour force is twenty-six million.
劳动力就是两千六百万。
The unemployment rate is two divided by twenty-six, times one hundred — seven point seven per cent.
失业率是二除以二十六再乘一百，等于百分之七点七。
And one warning: people not looking for work, like retired people and full-time students, are in neither figure.
还有一个提醒： 不在找工作的人，比如退休的人和全日制学生，两个数字里都不算。
So a falling rate is good news only if people found jobs, not if they stopped looking.
所以失业率下降只有在人们找到了工作时才是好消息，而不是因为他们放弃了寻找。
Three types to name, and the exam usually gives you a situation and asks which one it is.
有三种类型要记住，考试通常会给你一个情境，问你属于哪一种。
Frictional unemployment is short-term unemployment between jobs — a worker who has just left one job and is looking for the next.
摩擦性失业，是换工作之间的短期失业——一个刚离开上一份工作、正在找下一份的人。
Structural unemployment is when a whole industry shrinks and workers' skills are no longer wanted — coal miners after the mines close.
结构性失业，是整个行业萎缩、工人的技能不再被需要——比如煤矿关闭之后的矿工。
Cyclical unemployment is caused by a recession, when total demand is low so firms need fewer workers; it is also called demand-deficient unemployment.
周期性失业，是经济衰退造成的，总需求很低，所以企业需要的工人变少； 它也叫需求不足型失业。
Frictional is between jobs. Structural is the wrong skills. Cyclical is the whole economy.
摩擦性是在两份工作之间，结构性是技能不对，周期性是整个经济不行。
Now what unemployment costs, and it is not only the worker.
再说失业的代价，而且受损的不只是工人。
Workers lose income and may lose their skills.
工人失去收入，技能也可能退化。
The country loses the output those workers could have made.
国家失去了这些工人本来可以创造的产出。
The government pays more in benefits and collects less in tax.
政府要多付救济金、少收税。
And crime and poor health may rise.
犯罪和健康问题也可能增加。
Finally, where the jobs actually are.
最后看看工作到底在哪里。
An economy has three sectors.
经济有三大产业。
The primary sector extracts raw materials — farming, fishing, mining.
第一产业开采原材料——农业、渔业、采矿。
The secondary sector makes things — manufacturing and construction.
第二产业制造东西——制造业和建筑业。
The tertiary sector provides services — banking, tourism, retail, transport.
第三产业提供服务——银行、旅游、零售、运输。
As a country develops, jobs shift from primary to secondary to tertiary: farming first, then factories, then, with deindustrialisation and rising incomes, most jobs end up in services. Modern economies also see more part-time and flexible work.
随着国家发展， 工作会从第一产业转到第二产业、再转到第三产业：先是务农，然后是工厂， 再随着去工业化和收入上升，大多数工作最终落在服务业。
Inflation is a rise in the average level of prices over time.
通货膨胀，是价格的平均水平随时间上升。
It is measured by the Consumer Prices Index.
它用消费者价格指数来衡量。
Here is how that works. We pick a basket of goods a typical family buys. We give each good a weight — a bigger weight for the things people spend more on.
它是这样运作的： 我们选出一个典型家庭会买的一篮子物品，给每样物品一个权重—— 人们花得越多的东西权重越大。
Then we track how the price of the whole basket changes each year.
然后追踪整篮子物品的价格每年如何变化。
Do the numbers.
来算数字。
A country's index was one hundred last year and one hundred and four this year.
某国的指数去年是一百，今年是一百零四。
Inflation is the change divided by the old value, times one hundred — four over one hundred, so four per cent.
通胀率等于变化量除以原来的数值再乘一百—— 四除以一百，所以是百分之四。
Now watch this. Next year the index reaches one hundred and seven. Inflation is three over one hundred and four, which is two point nine per cent.
现在注意看：明年指数到了一百零七， 通胀率是三除以一百零四，等于百分之二点九。
Prices are still rising, just more slowly.
价格仍然在上涨，只是涨得更慢了。
A smaller inflation rate is not deflation — for deflation the index itself would have to fall.
通胀率变小不等于通货紧缩——要通货紧缩，指数本身必须下降。
Two causes, and the names tell you the mechanism.
通胀有两个原因，名字本身就说明了机制。
Demand-pull inflation: total demand grows faster than the economy can supply, so prices are pulled up.
需求拉动型通胀： 总需求增长得比经济能供给的还快，于是价格被拉上去。
Cost-push inflation: firms' costs rise — wages, materials — so they push their prices up to cover them. The effects: money loses purchasing power, so each unit buys less.
成本推动型通胀： 企业的成本上升——工资、原材料——于是它们把价格推上去来覆盖成本。
Savings become worth less. Firms must keep changing prices on labels and lists, which costs time and money. And the country's goods become dearer than other countries', which hurts exports.
通胀的影响是：货币失去购买力，每一单位能买到的东西变少；储蓄变得不值钱； 企业必须不停地改标签和价目表，既费时间又费钱； 而且本国的物品比别国的贵，这会打击出口。
Finally, the opposite. Falling prices sound wonderful, but deflation can be harmful, because people put off buying and wait for lower prices.
最后说反过来的情况： 价格下跌听起来很美好，但通货紧缩可能是有害的，因为人们会推迟购买、等更低的价格。
Demand falls, firms cut output, and unemployment rises.
需求下降，企业减产，失业上升。
Three marks students throw away.
三个学生常丢的分。
First, all three rates use the same shape: the change divided by the old value, times one hundred.
第一，三个比率用的是同一个形式： 变化量除以原来的数值，再乘一百。
That gives you the growth rate, the inflation rate — and the unemployment rate is unemployed divided by the labour force, times one hundred.
这样就得到增长率和通胀率； 而失业率是失业人数除以劳动力，再乘一百。
Second, know which policy is which: fiscal is the government's spending and taxes, monetary is the central bank's interest rates, supply-side raises what the economy can produce.
第二，要分清哪个政策是哪个： 财政政策是政府的支出和税收，货币政策是中央银行的利率， 供给侧政策提高经济能够生产的量。
Third, whenever you recommend a policy, name the cost as well as the benefit.
第三，只要你建议某项政策， 就要在说好处的同时说出代价。
Every macroeconomic policy hurts one aim while it helps another, and saying so is where the top marks live.
每一项宏观经济政策在帮助一个目标的同时， 都会伤害另一个目标；把这一点写出来，才是拿高分的地方。
Five things to take with you.
带走五件事。
First, growth comes from more or better factors of production: new machines, a bigger or more skilled workforce, and new technology.
第一，增长来自更多或更好的生产要素：新机器、更大或技能更高的劳动力、新技术。
Second, a recession is the opposite of growth: lower incomes, more unemployment, and business failures.
第二，衰退是增长的反面：收入更低、失业更多、企业倒闭。
Third, modern economies also see more part-time and flexible work as jobs shift into services.
第三，现代经济还有更多兼职和弹性工作，因为岗位转向服务业。
Fourth, deflation can be harmful because people delay buying, so demand and jobs fall.
第四，通货紧缩可能有害，因为人们推迟购买，需求和就业都会下降。
Fifth, learn the five aims — growth, jobs, prices, the balance of payments, and fair incomes — because they conflict.
第五，记住五个目标——增长、就业、价格、国际收支、公平收入——因为它们会互相冲突。