International economic issues (A Level)
A-Level Economics Topic 11 8:57 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
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Transcript
A country's money loses a fifth of its value overnight.
一个国家的货币一夜之间贬值了五分之一。
Exports are suddenly cheap, imports suddenly dear, so the trade gap should close at once.
出口一下子变便宜，进口一下子变贵， 按理说贸易缺口应该马上缩小。
It does not.
可是并没有。
For about a year it gets worse.
在大约一年里，它反而更糟。
This lesson explains that puzzle, and then asks the widest question in economics: why are some countries rich and others poor?
这节课要解开这个谜，然后再问经济学里最大的一个问题： 为什么有些国家富裕，有些国家贫穷？
Here is the plan.
本节的安排是这样的。
First, how a country fixes a deficit in its balance of payments.
首先，一个国家如何纠正国际收支的逆差。
Then the J-curve: why a cheaper currency hurts before it helps.
然后是 J 曲线：为什么货币贬值会先带来痛苦，之后才有好处。
Then exchange rates, how we measure them and the three systems.
接着是汇率，我们怎样衡量它，以及三种汇率制度。
Then development, far wider than growth.
然后是经济发展，它比增长宽得多。
Then how rich and poor countries compare, and last, globalisation.
再看看富国与穷国有哪些差别， 最后是全球化。
Start with a country that buys far more from abroad than it sells: a current-account deficit.
先看一个从国外买进远多于卖出的国家：这就是经常账户逆差。
Two families of policy fix it, and the exam wants both by name.
有两类政策可以纠正它，考试要求两个名字都写出来。
Expenditure-reducing policies cut total demand with higher taxes or interest rates, so people buy fewer imports. But the cost is real: growth slows and unemployment may rise.
支出减少政策通过提高税率或利率来压低总需求，人们花得少，进口也就买得少。
That is the cost of correcting a balance of payments imbalance.
但代价是实实在在的：增长放缓，失业可能上升。
Expenditure-switching policies move spending instead.
支出转换政策则是改变支出的去向。
A lower exchange rate makes exports cheaper abroad and imports dearer at home, so buyers switch to home goods.
汇率下降会让出口在国外更便宜、 进口在国内更贵，于是买家转向本国货物。
But it only works if buyers respond enough.
但这一招只有在买家反应足够大时才有效。
So how much must buyers respond?
那么买家要有多大的反应才够呢？
The Marshall-Lerner condition answers that.
马歇尔勒纳条件回答了这个问题。
Take the price elasticity of demand for exports, add the one for imports, and if the sum is greater than one, a lower exchange rate improves the current account.
把出口的需求价格弹性，加上进口的需求价格弹性；如果两者之和大于一， 汇率下降就能改善经常账户。
After a depreciation, the elasticity for exports is nought point six and for imports nought point seven.
贬值之后，出口的弹性是零点六，进口的弹性是零点七。
Will the account improve?
经常账户会改善吗？
Pause here and try it yourself.
先暂停，自己算一算。
Add them: nought point six plus nought point seven gives one point three.
把它们相加：零点六加零点七等于一点三。
That is greater than one, so the condition is met and the account improves.
它大于一，所以条件满足，经常账户会改善。
Now the other case.
再看另一种情形。
Had they been nought point three and nought point four, the sum is nought point seven, below one, and the same fall would deepen the deficit.
如果两者是零点三和零点四，和为零点七，小于一， 同样的贬值反而会让逆差更严重。
Even when the condition holds, the gain takes time.
即使条件满足，好处也要等一段时间。
This is the J-curve.
这就是 J 曲线。
Before the fall, the account sits on the zero line.
贬值之前，经常账户停在零线上。
Then the currency falls.
然后货币贬值。
Prices change at once: every import costs more today.
价格立刻改变：今天每一件进口品都更贵。
But volumes are slow, because contracts are already signed.
但数量变化很慢， 因为合同早就签好了。
So at first the deficit gets worse, not better.
所以一开始逆差是变大，而不是变小。
Later the volumes do move, and the account climbs back up, past the zero line.
过一段时间数量真的动了，经常账户就爬回来，越过零线。
Worse first, better later, in the shape of a letter J.
先变差，后变好，形状就像字母 J。
Now the exchange rate itself: the price of one currency in another, set by demand and supply.
现在看汇率本身：它就是用另一种货币表示的某种货币的价格，由需求和供给决定。
More demand for pounds pushes the rate up, and the pound appreciates.
对英镑的需求增加，汇率就被推高，英镑升值。
Now the effect students get backwards. A stronger pound makes exports dearer abroad and imports cheaper at home.
接下来是学生最容易弄反的一点： 英镑走强会让出口在国外变贵，让进口在国内变便宜。
Remember it as spiced.
记住这个词：spiced。
There is more than one exchange rate, and the exam expects all three.
汇率不止一种，考试要求三种都会。
The nominal rate is the everyday market rate a bank shows you.
名义汇率就是银行给你看的日常市场汇率。
The real rate adjusts that for prices in each country, so it shows true competitiveness.
实际汇率是在名义汇率的基础上，对两国的价格水平作了调整， 所以它反映真正的竞争力。
The trade-weighted rate, also called the effective rate, is an average against every partner, weighted by how much trade is done with each.
贸易加权汇率，也叫有效汇率， 是对所有贸易伙伴取的平均值，按与每个伙伴的贸易量加权。
There are also three systems.
汇率制度也有三种。
A floating rate is set purely by demand for and supply of the currency: the market decides.
浮动汇率完全由货币的需求和供给决定：市场说了算。
A fixed rate is held at a set value by the central bank.
固定汇率由中央银行维持在一个设定的水平。
A managed rate mostly floats, but the bank steps in at times.
管理浮动汇率大体上浮动，但央行会不时干预。
Now the vocabulary trap.
接下来是词汇陷阱。
Under floating, a rise is an appreciation and a fall is a depreciation.
在浮动制下，上升叫升值，下降叫贬值。
Under a fixed system, it is a revaluation or a devaluation.
在固定制下，则叫法定升值或法定贬值。
A weaker currency tends to raise exports, because home goods become cheaper abroad.
货币变弱往往会增加出口， 因为本国货物在国外变得更便宜。
It also tends to raise inflation, because imports become dearer at home.
它也往往会推高通胀， 因为进口在国内变得更贵。
A stronger currency does the opposite: exports slow, and cheaper imports hold prices down.
货币变强则正好相反：出口放缓， 更便宜的进口把价格压下来。
That pairing is what the exam wants after you have named the system.
这组配对才是考试在你写出汇率制度之后想要的。
Under floating this is a depreciation; under a fixed system it is a devaluation — the inflation effect is the same either way.
在浮动制下这叫贬值；在固定制下这叫法定贬值—— 对通胀的影响两种制度都一样。
Do not stop at "exports rise".
不要停在"出口上升"。
Name the inflation effect too.
通胀效应也要写。
Now the second half of the topic, and two words you must not mix up.
现在进入本专题的后半部分，有两个词千万不能混。
Economic growth is a rise in real output: more income, nothing more.
经济增长就是实际产出的上升：收入更多，仅此而已。
Economic development is wider.
经济发展则宽得多。
It is about the standard of living: people's health, their education and their freedom of choice.
它讲的是生活水平：人们的健康、教育， 以及选择的自由。
A country can grow without developing much, if the extra income reaches only a few.
一个国家可以只增长而几乎不发展， 只要多出来的收入只落到少数人手里。
The best known measure is the Human Development Index, the H D I.
最有名的衡量指标是人类发展指数。
It rolls three things into one number between zero and one.
它把三样东西合成一个零到一之间的数字。
Income, as gross national income for each person.
收入，用人均国民总收入表示。
Health, as life expectancy at birth.
健康，用出生时的预期寿命表示。
Education, as the years of schooling people get.
教育，用人们受教育的年限表示。
Together they describe living standards far better than income alone.
三者合起来， 比单看收入更能描述生活水平。
Clean water, doctors and internet use are useful signs too.
干净的水、医生人数和上网人数，也都是有用的信号。
Compare a developed country like Germany with a developing one like Kenya.
把德国这样的发达国家，和肯尼亚这样的发展中国家作个比较。
Income for each person is high in one and low in the other, birth rates run the other way, and people live longer where incomes are higher. That is how you compare countries at different levels of development. Now look at the employment structure — where people work.
一个国家人均收入高，另一个低；出生率则正好相反； 收入越高的地方，人们活得越久。
In the developing country, fifty-eight workers in every hundred are in farming and mining.
再看人们在哪里工作。 在发展中国家，每一百个工人里有五十八个从事农业和采矿。
In the developed country, only four. Seventy-four work in services instead.
在发达国家只有四个，却有七十四个在服务业。
As a country develops, workers move from the primary sector to the secondary, then to the tertiary.
随着国家发展，工人从第一产业转到第二产业，再转到第三产业。
So what actually drives development?
那么，究竟是什么推动了发展？
Five things, and an examiner rewards all five.
有五样，考官这五样都给分。
Savings and investment, so a country can build capital.
储蓄与投资，国家才能积累资本。
Better education and health, which raise what each worker can produce.
更好的教育和医疗， 能提高每个工人的产出。
Infrastructure: roads, power and ports.
基础设施：道路、电力和港口。
Stable government and law, so firms dare to invest.
稳定的政府和法律，企业才敢投资。
And access to world markets, so the goods can be sold.
还有进入世界市场的渠道，货物才卖得出去。
Now the relationships between countries. Rich and poor are tied together in four ways, and each one cuts both ways.
富国和穷国通过四种方式联系在一起，而每一种都是双刃剑。
Trade can raise incomes, but many developing countries lean on a few primary exports whose prices swing sharply.
贸易可以提高收入，但许多发展中国家依赖少数几种初级产品出口， 价格波动很大。
Aid and debt pay for schools and roads, but aid may create dependency and debt drains a poor budget.
援助和债务能为学校和道路提供资金， 但援助可能造成依赖，还债则会榨干穷国的预算。
Foreign direct investment by a multinational corporation brings money, jobs and technology, but the profits may flow abroad.
外国直接投资带来资金、就业和技术，但利润可能流回国外。
And migration eases unemployment and sends remittances home, but it drains skilled workers.
移民可以缓解失业并把钱汇回家，却会流失熟练劳动力。
All of this adds up to globalisation: the growing links between countries in trade, money, technology and people, so the world acts more like one market.
这一切加起来就是全球化：国家之间在贸易、资金、技术和人员上的联系越来越紧密， 世界越来越像一个市场。
Cheaper transport, free-trade deals and multinational firms drove it, and many countries joined a trade bloc, a group that trades freely inside itself, like the European Union — though powerful multinationals can also use it to dodge protectionism rules and avoid tax.
运输更便宜、自由贸易协定， 以及跨国公司的扩张都在推动它，许多国家还加入了贸易集团， 也就是内部自由贸易的国家组合，比如欧盟。
The benefits are lower prices, more choice, faster growth and larger markets.
好处是价格更低、选择更多、增长更快、市场更大。
The costs are lost jobs, a wider gap between rich and poor, and more pollution.
代价是工作岗位流失、贫富差距拉大，以及更多污染。
Globalisation helps developed and developing economies in different ways.
全球化对发达经济体和发展中经济体的帮助方式不同。
Poorer countries can industrialise as firms move production to them, and technology transfers with the investment.
穷国可以随着企业把生产迁过去而实现工业化， 技术也随投资转移。
But the gains are not shared evenly.
但好处并不是平均分享的。
Some industries and jobs are lost to cheaper countries, the gap between rich and poor can widen, and powerful multinationals may avoid tax.
有些行业和工作岗位会输给更便宜的国家， 贫富差距可能拉大， 强大的跨国公司还可能避税。
That is why it remains so argued about.
正因为如此，它一直争论不休。
An evaluate question on globalisation is a winners-and-losers question.
全球化的评价题就是赢家和输家的题。
Write both, then say which weighs more.
两边都要写，然后再说哪边更重。
Before you go, four marks students throw away.
结束之前，说四个学生最容易丢的分。
First, name the policy family: expenditure-reducing or expenditure-switching.
第一，写出政策的名字： 是支出减少，还是支出转换。
Second, state the Marshall-Lerner condition properly: the two elasticities added together must be greater than one.
第二，把马歇尔勒纳条件写完整： 两个弹性相加必须大于一。
Third, the J-curve gets worse before it gets better, so say both halves.
第三，J 曲线是先变差再变好，两半都要说到。
And fourth, judge development with the index, not with income alone.
第四，判断发展要用这个指数，而不是只看收入。