The Crowding-Out Effect · 挤出效应
| English | 中文 | Pinyin · 拼音 |
|---|---|---|
| loanable funds/ˈləʊnəbl fʌndz/ | 可贷资金 | kě dài zī jīn |
| crowding out/ˈkraʊdɪŋ aʊt/ | 挤出效应 | jǐ chū xiào yìng |
| real interest rate/rɪəl ˈɪntrest reɪt/ | 实际利率 | shí jì lì lǜ |
| private investment/ˈpraɪvət ɪnˈvestmənt/ | 私人投资 | sī rén tóu zī |
Two borrowers, one pool of savings
- Firms borrow to invest; the government borrows to fund a deficit.
- They draw from the same pool — the market for loanable funds 可贷资金.
- When the government borrows a lot, it competes with firms for those savings.
- The result has a name: crowding out 挤出效应.
两个借款者,一池储蓄
- 企业借钱去投资;政府借钱去弥补赤字。
- 它们从同一个池子里取钱——可贷资金(loanable funds)市场。
- 当政府大量借款,它就和企业争夺这些储蓄。
- 这个结果有个名字:挤出效应(crowding out)。
Firms and the government both borrow from the market for: · 企业和政府都从可贷资金市场中借贷用于：
The loanable-funds market channels savings to borrowers. · 可贷资金市场将储蓄引导至借款人。
Government deficit spending shifts the demand for loanable funds: · 政府赤字支出使可贷资金需求发生如下变化：
More borrowing demand at each rate shifts demand right and raises the rate. · 在每个利率水平上增加借贷需求会使需求曲线右移并推高利率。
How the interest rate rises
- Government deficit spending raises the demand for loanable funds — the demand curve shifts right.
- More borrowers chasing the same savings pushes the real interest rate 实际利率 up.
- Draw it in the loanable-funds market: demand right → the equilibrium real rate climbs.
利率如何上升
- 政府的赤字支出抬高可贷资金需求——需求曲线右移。
- 更多借款者追逐同样的储蓄,把实际利率(real interest rate)推高。
- 在可贷资金市场里画出来:需求右移 → 均衡实际利率攀升。
Higher rates cut private investment from 400 to 360. By how much did investment fall? · 利率上升导致私人投资从400降至360。投资下降了多少？
400 − 360 = 40 crowded out. · 400 − 360 = 40 被挤出。
When higher rates reduce private investment, we say it has been ______ out. · 当高利率减少私人投资时，我们称之为被______出。
The government "crowds out" private borrowers by pushing up the rate. · 政府通过抬高利率“挤出”了私人借款人。
Why private investment falls
- A higher real interest rate makes borrowing more expensive for firms.
- So private investment 私人投资 falls — the government has crowded it out.
- Worked idea. Government borrowing pushes the real rate from $3\%$ to $5\%$. Firms cut investment from $400$ to $360$ — a fall of $40$.
- This weakens the boost that the deficit spending was meant to give.
为什么私人投资下降
- 更高的实际利率让企业借钱更贵。
- 所以私人投资(private investment)下降——政府把它挤出了。
- 例题。 政府借款把实际利率从 $3\%$ 推到 $5\%$。企业把投资从 $400$ 削到 $360$——减少 $40$。
- 这削弱了赤字支出本想带来的提振。
Crowding out is strongest when the economy is: · 挤出效应在经济处于以下状态时最强：
Scarce savings mean extra government borrowing bids the rate up sharply. · 稀缺的储蓄意味着政府额外借贷会急剧推高利率。
Crowding out makes expansionary fiscal policy partly self-defeating. · 挤出效应使得扩张性财政政策部分适得其反。
Some of the demand boost is cancelled by lost private investment. · 部分需求刺激被丧失的私人投资所抵消。
The bottom line for fiscal policy
- Crowding out means expansionary fiscal policy is partly self-defeating: some private spending is lost.
- It is strongest when the economy is near full employment (savings are scarce).
- It is weakest in a deep recession (idle savings, rates barely move).
- So the timing of deficit spending matters — a recession, not a boom, is when it crowds out least.
对财政政策的结论
- 挤出效应意味着扩张性财政政策部分地自我抵消:一些私人支出流失了。
- 当经济接近充分就业时(储蓄稀缺)它最强。
- 在深度衰退中(储蓄闲置,利率几乎不动)它最弱。
- 所以赤字支出的时机很重要——衰退而非繁荣,才是挤出最少的时候。
The crowding-out effect · 挤出效应
Follow how extra government borrowing can push out private investment. · 了解政府额外借贷如何挤出私人投资。
Crowding out: government borrowing raises the demand for loanable funds, pushing the real interest rate up (e.g. $3\% \to 5\%$), which lowers private investment ($400 \to 360$). It makes expansionary fiscal policy partly self-defeating, and is strongest near full employment.
挤出效应:政府借款抬高可贷资金需求,把实际利率推高(例如 $3\% \to 5\%$),从而降低私人投资($400 \to 360$)。它让扩张性财政政策部分自我抵消,在接近充分就业时最强。