Money Growth and Inflation · 货币增长与通货膨胀
| English | 中文 | Pinyin · 拼音 |
|---|---|---|
| quantity theory of money/ˈkwɒntɪti ˈθɪəri ɒv ˈmʌni/ | 货币数量论 | huò bì shù liàng lùn |
| velocity of money/vəˈlɒsɪti ɒv ˈmʌni/ | 货币流通速度 | huò bì liú tōng sù dù |
| price level/praɪs ˈlevl/ | 价格水平 | jià gé shuǐ píng |
| excessive money supply growth/ekˈsesɪv ˈmʌni səˈplaɪ ɡrəʊθ/ | 货币供给过度增长 | huò bì gōng jǐ guò dù zēng zhǎng |
| neutrality of money/njuːˈtrælɪti ɒv ˈmʌni/ | 货币中性 | huò bì zhōng xìng |
Where long-run inflation comes from
- A one-off shock can nudge prices, but what drives sustained inflation?
- The classical answer points straight at the money supply.
- Print money faster than the economy grows, and prices must rise.
- This is the quantity theory of money 货币数量论.
长期通胀从何而来
- 一次性冲击能推一下价格,但什么驱动持续的通胀?
- 古典的答案直指货币供给。
- 印钱比经济增长得更快,价格就必然上升。
- 这就是货币数量论(quantity theory of money)。
The equation of exchange
- The identity: $MV = PQ$.
- $M$ is the money supply; $V$ is the velocity of money 货币流通速度 (how often each dollar is spent); $P$ is the price level 价格水平; $Q$ is real output.
- It is always true: total spending $MV$ equals the money value of goods sold $PQ$.
交换方程
- 恒等式:$MV = PQ$。
- $M$ 是货币供给;$V$ 是货币流通速度(velocity of money,每块钱花多少次);$P$ 是价格水平(price level);$Q$ 是实际产出。
- 它永远成立:总支出 $MV$ 等于售出商品的货币价值 $PQ$。
The equation of exchange is: · 交换方程是:
MV (total spending) = PQ (money value of goods sold). · MV(总支出)= PQ(售出商品的货币价值)。
V, how many times each dollar is spent in a year, is the ______ of money. · V,每块钱一年花多少次,是货币的______。
The quantity theory assumes velocity is roughly constant in the long run. · 货币数量论假设长期流通速度大致恒定。
The long-run assumptions
- Velocity $V$ is roughly constant — spending habits change slowly.
- Real output $Q$ is set by real resources — labour, capital, technology — not by how much money exists.
- With $V$ and $Q$ fixed, the price level $P$ moves in step with the money supply $M$.
- So excessive money supply growth 货币供给过度增长 causes long-run inflation.
长期假设
- 流通速度 $V$ 大致恒定——花钱习惯变化缓慢。
- 实际产出 $Q$ 由真实资源决定——劳动、资本、技术——而非由货币多少决定。
- 当 $V$ 和 $Q$ 固定,价格水平 $P$ 随货币供给 $M$ 同步变动。
- 所以货币供给过度增长(excessive money supply growth)造成长期通胀。
Real or nominal in the long run? · 长期里是实际还是名义?
In the long run, money is neutral: faster money growth raises nominal things (prices, wages) but leaves real output and employment unchanged. · 长期里货币是中性的:更快的货币增长抬高名义变量(价格、工资),但让实际产出和就业不变。
Printing money faster than output can grow causes inflation in the long run. · 印钱比产出增长得更快,长期会造成通胀。
Too many dollars chase the same goods, so prices rise to soak them up. · 太多货币追逐同样的商品,所以价格上升以吸收它们。
In the long run, real output Q is set by: · 长期里,实际产出 Q 由什么决定:
Money does not create real output; real resources do. · 货币不创造实际产出;真实资源才创造。
Inflation and the neutrality of money
- In growth rates: $\text{inflation} \approx \%\Delta M - \%\Delta Q$.
- Worked idea. If money grows 10% and real output grows 3%, inflation is about $10 - 3 = 7\%$.
- Double money growth to 20% (output still 3%) and inflation jumps to ~17% — but real output still grew 3%.
- That is the neutrality of money 货币中性: in the long run, more money changes only nominal things, not real output.
通胀与货币中性
- 用增长率表示:$\text{inflation} \approx \%\Delta M - \%\Delta Q$。
- 例题。 如果货币增长 10%、实际产出增长 3%,通胀约为 $10 - 3 = 7\%$。
- 把货币增长翻倍到 20%(产出仍 3%),通胀跳到约 17%——但实际产出仍然增长 3%。
- 这就是货币中性(neutrality of money):长期里,更多货币只改变名义变量,不改变实际产出。
The money supply grows 10% and real output grows 3%, with velocity steady. What is the approximate inflation rate, in percent? · 货币供给增长 10%,实际产出增长 3%,流通速度稳定。近似通胀率是多少(百分数)?
Inflation ≈ %ΔM − %ΔQ = 10 − 3 = 7%. · 通胀 ≈ %ΔM − %ΔQ = 10 − 3 = 7%。
The neutrality of money says that in the long run, more money changes: · 货币中性说,长期里更多货币改变:
Real output is set by real resources, so extra money just raises prices. · 实际产出由真实资源决定,所以额外货币只抬高价格。
The quantity theory of money ($MV = PQ$) says that, with velocity and real output steady, the price level moves with the money supply. So $\text{inflation} \approx \%\Delta M - \%\Delta Q$, and excessive money growth causes inflation. In the long run money is neutral — it changes only nominal things.
货币数量论($MV = PQ$)说,当流通速度和实际产出稳定时,价格水平随货币供给变动。所以 $\text{inflation} \approx \%\Delta M - \%\Delta Q$,货币过度增长造成通胀。长期里货币是中性的——只改变名义变量。