The Phillips Curve · 菲利普斯曲线
| English | 中文 | Pinyin · 拼音 |
|---|---|---|
| trade-off/treɪd ɒf/ | 权衡取舍 | quán héng qǔ shě |
| Phillips curve/ˈfɪlɪps kɜːv/ | 菲利普斯曲线 | fēi lì pǔ sī qū xiàn |
| short-run Phillips curve/ʃɔːt rʌn ˈfɪlɪps kɜːv/ | 短期菲利普斯曲线 | duǎn qī fēi lì pǔ sī qū xiàn |
| long-run Phillips curve/lɒŋ rʌn ˈfɪlɪps kɜːv/ | 长期菲利普斯曲线 | cháng qī fēi lì pǔ sī qū xiàn |
| natural rate of unemployment/ˈnætʃərəl reɪt ɒv ʌnemˈplɔɪmənt/ | 自然失业率 | zì rán shī yè lǜ |
| inflationary expectations/ɪnˈfleɪʃənəri ekspɪkˈteɪʃnz/ | 通货膨胀预期 | tōng huò péng zhàng yù qī |
| supply shock/səˈplaɪ ʃɒk/ | 供给冲击 | gōng jǐ chōng jī |
| stagflation/stæɡˈfleɪʃn/ | 滞胀 | zhì zhàng |
The inflation-unemployment trade-off
- The AD-AS model says a rightward AD shift raises output and prices.
- So unemployment falls while inflation rises — they move opposite.
- The Phillips curve 菲利普斯曲线 plots that same link on its own diagram.
- Inflation on the vertical axis, unemployment on the horizontal.
通胀与失业的权衡
- AD-AS 模型说,AD 右移会同时抬高产出和价格。
- 所以失业下降、通胀上升——它们方向相反。
- 菲利普斯曲线(Phillips curve)把这个关系画在它自己的图上。
- 纵轴是通胀,横轴是失业。
The short-run curve slopes down
- The short-run Phillips curve 短期菲利普斯曲线 (SRPC) slopes downward — a short-run trade-off 权衡取舍.
- Lower unemployment costs higher inflation; lower inflation costs higher unemployment.
- A move up-left along it mirrors a rightward AD shift; a move down-right mirrors a leftward AD shift.
短期曲线向下倾斜
- 短期菲利普斯曲线(short-run Phillips curve,SRPC)向下倾斜——一种短期权衡取舍(trade-off)。
- 更低的失业以更高的通胀为代价;更低的通胀以更高的失业为代价。
- 沿它向上-向左移动对应AD 右移;向下-向右对应 AD 左移。
The short-run Phillips curve slopes downward, showing: · 短期菲利普斯曲线向下倾斜,表明:
Lower unemployment comes with higher inflation, and vice versa — a short-run trade-off. · 更低的失业伴随更高的通胀,反之亦然——短期权衡。
A move up-left along the SRPC (lower unemployment, higher inflation) matches: · 沿 SRPC 向上-向左移动(更低失业、更高通胀)对应:
More spending pushes output past potential, so jobs rise and prices climb. · 更多支出把产出推过潜在,所以就业上升、价格上涨。
The long-run curve is vertical
- The long-run Phillips curve 长期菲利普斯曲线 (LRPC) is a vertical line at the natural rate of unemployment 自然失业率.
- In the long run there is no trade-off: whatever the inflation rate, unemployment returns to its natural rate.
- Once people fully expect higher inflation, wages rise, costs climb, and the jobs boost vanishes.
长期曲线是竖直的
- 长期菲利普斯曲线(long-run Phillips curve,LRPC)是位于自然失业率(natural rate of unemployment)处的一条竖直线。
- 在长期没有权衡:无论通胀率如何,失业都回到自然率。
- 一旦人们完全预期更高的通胀,工资上升、成本上涨,就业的提振消失。
Move along, or shift the SRPC? · 沿 SRPC 移动,还是移动它?
A change in AD moves you along the short-run Phillips curve; a change in inflation expectations or a supply shock shifts the whole curve. · AD 的变化让你沿短期菲利普斯曲线移动;通胀预期的变化或供给冲击移动整条曲线。
The long-run Phillips curve is: · 长期菲利普斯曲线是:
In the long run there is no trade-off; unemployment returns to its natural rate. · 长期没有权衡;失业回到自然率。
The long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the ______ rate of unemployment. · 长期菲利普斯曲线在失业的______率处竖直。
The LRPC and SRPC cross exactly at the natural rate. · LRPC 和 SRPC 恰好在自然率处相交。
What shifts the SRPC
- A change in inflationary expectations 通货膨胀预期: expecting higher inflation shifts the SRPC up.
- A supply shock 供给冲击: a negative one raises inflation and unemployment together (stagflation 滞胀), shifting the SRPC right.
- Worked idea. Printing money cuts unemployment 5% → 3% but inflation jumps 2% → 6%; then expectations catch up, the SRPC shifts up, and unemployment returns to 5% with permanently higher inflation.
什么会移动 SRPC
- 通货膨胀预期(inflationary expectations)的变化:预期更高的通胀使 SRPC 上移。
- 供给冲击(supply shock):负面冲击同时抬高通胀和失业(滞胀,stagflation),使 SRPC 右移。
- 例题。 印钱把失业从 5% 压到 3%,但通胀从 2% 跳到 6%;随后预期跟上,SRPC 上移,失业回到 5%,但通胀永久性更高。
If people begin to expect higher inflation, the short-run Phillips curve: · 如果人们开始预期更高的通胀,短期菲利普斯曲线:
Higher expected inflation means more inflation at every unemployment rate — the SRPC shifts up. · 更高的预期通胀意味着每个失业率下通胀更高——SRPC 上移。
A negative supply shock shifts the short-run Phillips curve right, worsening both inflation and unemployment. · 负面供给冲击使短期菲利普斯曲线右移,通胀和失业都变糟。
That is stagflation — worse on both counts at once. · 这就是滞胀——两者同时变糟。
The short-run Phillips curve slopes down — a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, mirroring AD shifts. The long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate: no lasting trade-off. The SRPC shifts with inflationary expectations and supply shocks.
短期菲利普斯曲线向下倾斜——通胀与失业之间的权衡取舍,是 AD 移动的镜像。长期菲利普斯曲线在自然率处竖直:没有持久的权衡。SRPC 随通货膨胀预期和供给冲击移动。