English
A culture has 180 cells at hour 2 and 1440 cells at hour 5. An exponential model assumes a constant proportion of change over equal-length input intervals. The observations span three hours, so their ratio is a three-hour factor, not an hourly factor.
Worked example: construct a model from two observations
For positive counts, write $N(t)=ab^t$ with $a>0$ and $b>0$. Substitute the observations and divide to remove $a$:
$$\begin{aligned}
180&=ab^2,\\
1440&=ab^5,\\
b^{5-2}&=\frac{1440}{180}=8,\\
b&=\sqrt[3]{8}=2,\\
a&=\frac{180}{2^2}=45.
\end{aligned}$$
Thus $N(t)=45(2)^t$. Check both observations: $N(2)=180$ and $N(5)=1440$. At hour 4 it predicts $N(4)=720$. The initial value is 45 at the chosen hour 0, not the first recorded count of 180. It is inferred, rather than measured.
Keep the input interval attached to the factor
The hourly factor 2 means a 100% increase per hour. The three-hour factor 8 means a 700% increase across three hours. If $u=t-2$ counts hours since the first observation, use $N=180(2)^u$. If $s=t/3$ counts three-hour periods from the original origin, use $N=45(8)^s$. These are descriptions of the same model with different input labels or units.
Worked example: adjust for a nonzero background. A drink cools in a room held at 20°C. The raw temperature ratios are not constant, but subtracting the baseline 基准值 of 20 reveals a proportional pattern:
| Time (hours) |
Temperature (°C) |
Temperature minus 20 (°C) |
| 0 |
100 |
80 |
| 1 |
60 |
40 |
| 2 |
40 |
20 |
| 3 |
30 |
10 |
A baseline is the fixed background value from which the modeled difference is measured. The differences halve each hour, giving $T(t)=20+80(0.5)^t$. Using just hours 0 and 2, the adjusted ratio gives
$$\begin{aligned}
b^2&=\frac{40-20}{100-20}=\frac14,\\
b&=\frac12,\\
T(0)&=20+80=100.
\end{aligned}$$
Check the distinction: For a shifted model $y=c+ab^t$, the initial output is $c+a$, not $a$. The baseline $c$ must be known or separately estimated: two readings alone do not determine all three parameters. Subtract a positive background, or equivalently add its negative, before looking for constant ratios. Here the model approaches 20°C rather than zero. Counting time from the hour-2 reading gives the equivalent form $T=20+20(0.5)^u$, with $u=t-2$.
Natural-base form and noisy data. The natural base 自然底数 is $e\approx2.718$. Since $b=e^{\ln b}$, the same culture model is $N=45e^{(\ln2)t}$. In $ae^{kt}$, $k=\ln b$; it is not the ordinary fractional increase $b-1$. Here $k\approx0.693$ per hour, while the one-hour increase is 100%.
Use exponential regression 指数回归 with technology when measurements are noisy, then check the predictions against all the data. A log-linear fit regresses $\ln y$ on the input for positive $y$; with a known baseline, apply it to $\ln(y-c)$ only when $y-c>0$. A two-point fit can be exact even when an exponential is unsuitable. Population forecasts need continued growth conditions; the cooling model needs a stable room temperature. Justify predictions beyond the observations.
Try it. A culture has 81 cells at hour 3 and 729 cells at hour 5. Assuming $N=ab^t$, find the hourly factor, the inferred count at hour 0 and the prediction at hour 4. For $T(t)=18+62(0.5)^t$, find the initial temperature and the temperature at hour 2.
Check. For the culture, $b^2=729/81=9$, so $b=3$ and $a=81/3^3=3$. Hence $N(4)=3(3)^4=243$ cells. For the drink, $T(0)=80$°C and $T(2)=18+62/4=33.5$°C.
Worked example: two points. An exponential model $f(x)=ab^x$ passes through $(1,6)$ and $(3,54)$. Divide the two equations so that $a$ cancels:
$$\frac{ab^3}{ab^1}=\frac{54}{6} \;\Rightarrow\; b^2=9 \;\Rightarrow\; b=3 \ (b>0).$$
Then $ab=6$ gives $a=2$, so $f(x)=2\cdot 3^x$. Check: $f(3)=2\cdot27=54$.