Weighing the Causes of Global Conflict · 权衡全球冲突的原因
Relative significance, again
- Explain the relative significance of the causes of global conflict in the period 1900 to the present.
- Same skill as 6.8: choose a criterion, rank, and defend the ranking.
- The difference is the material — this time you are weighing causes, not effects.
再一次:相对重要性
- 解释 1900 年至今全球冲突各项成因的相对重要性。
- 与 6.8 是同一项技能:选定标准、排序、并为排序辩护。
- 不同之处在于材料——这一次你权衡的是成因,而不是结果。
The first decision in a causes-ranking essay is... · 原因排名论文的第一个决定是……
The causes change weight depending on the frame. · 原因的权重取决于框架。
The causes the unit has supplied
- Imperial competition (7.2 and 7.6), nationalism (7.2), the alliance system (7.2), the unsustainable settlement (7.6).
- Economic crisis (7.4 and 7.6), and the rise of fascist and totalitarian regimes, which the CED marks especially (7.6).
- Six candidates, and one of them already carries the CED's own emphasis.
本单元已提供的成因
- 帝国竞争(7.2 与 7.6)、民族主义(7.2)、联盟体系(7.2)、难以持续的和约(7.6)。
- 经济危机(7.4 与 7.6),以及法西斯与极权政权的崛起,后者被 CED 标为"尤其是"(7.6)。
- 六个候选项,而其中一个已经带着 CED 自己的强调。
Select all · 所有 the criteria this lesson offers. · 选择本课提供的所有标准。
Name the criterion, and the ranking becomes an argument. · 说出该标准，并将排序作为论据。
Two wars, or one chain?
- The CED gives the second war a cause that is the first war's ending, which invites a single-chain reading.
- A ranking that treats the wars as one sequence can rank the settlement very highly.
- A ranking that treats them separately will usually put regime type first for 1939 and imperial competition first for 1914.
两场战争,还是一条链?
- CED 给第二场战争的一个成因,就是第一场战争的结束,这邀请人们把它读作一条链。
- 把两场战争视为一个序列的排序,可以把那份和约排得很高。
- 而把它们分开处理的排序,通常会把 1939 年的政权类型排在首位,把 1914 年的帝国竞争排在首位。
Which cause, and from which war? · 哪个原因，来自哪场战争？
Sort each candidate cause by where the unit places it. · 按本单元将其放置的位置对每个候选原因进行排序。
The CED's own emphasis falls on the rise of fascist and ____ regimes. · CED 自身的重点在于法西斯主义和____政权的兴起。
Quoting the CED's especially is a legitimate move in this essay. · 引用 CED 的 especially（尤其）是本文的一个合理举措。
Say first whether the two wars are one chain or two events. The CED makes the first war's settlement a cause of the second, so both readings are available — but a ranking that switches between them halfway through cannot be defended, because the causes change weight depending on the frame.
**先说明这两场战争是一条链还是两个事件。**CED 把第一场战争的和约列为第二场的成因,因此两种读法都成立——但一个中途在两者之间摇摆的排序无法被捍卫,因为成因的分量会随框架而改变。
Select all · 所有 the unit review statements available as evidence. · 选择 所有 可作为证据的单位复习陈述。
The other two belong to units 4 and 6. · 另外两个属于第 4 和第 6 单元。
Two review statements to use
- Rapid advances in science and technology altered the understanding of the universe and the natural world and led to advances in communication, transportation, industry, agriculture and medicine.
- Peoples and states around the world challenged the existing political and social order in varying ways, leading to unprecedented worldwide conflicts.
- The second is the CED's own summary cause: challenge to the existing order is the general form of every specific cause in the unit.
两条可用的复习陈述
- 科学与技术的迅速进步,改变了对宇宙与自然界的理解,并带来了通讯、交通、工业、农业与医学的进步。
- 世界各地的人民与国家以不同方式挑战既有的政治与社会秩序,导致了前所未有的世界性冲突。
- 后一条是 CED 自己的总括性成因:对既有秩序的挑战,是本单元中每一个具体成因的一般形式。
Put the causes-ranking routine in order. · 将原因排序流程按顺序排列。
The frame comes first because it changes what the causes weigh. · 框架优先，因为它改变了原因的权重。
A causes-ranking routine
- Say whether you are treating 1914 and 1939 as one chain or two events, in the first sentence.
- Choose a criterion — necessity, sufficiency, or reach — and name it.
- Rank three causes with evidence, then concede the strongest case for a different order.
成因排序流程
- 在第一句话里说明,你是把 1914 年与 1939 年当作一条链,还是两个事件。
- 选定一个标准——必要性、充分性,或触及范围——并把它说出来。
- 为三个成因排序并给出证据,然后承认支持另一种排序的最有力理由。
Criterion: necessity — would the conflict have happened without this cause? On that measure the rise of aggressive regimes ranks first for 1939, because the settlement and the Depression describe grievance without an actor. The strongest case against: without the settlement, those regimes may never have found their audience.
标准:必要性——没有这个成因,冲突还会发生吗?以此衡量,侵略性政权的崛起在 1939 年排在首位,因为和约与大萧条描述的是不满,而没有行动者。反对这一排序的最有力理由是:若没有那份和约,那些政权也许根本找不到自己的听众。
Relative significance means ranking causes with a stated criterion. The unit supplies imperial competition, nationalism, the alliance system, the unsustainable settlement, economic crisis and the rise of fascist and totalitarian regimes, which the CED itself marks especially. Decide first whether 1914 and 1939 are one chain or two events.
相对重要性意味着用一个明说的标准给成因排序。本单元提供了帝国竞争、民族主义、联盟体系、难以持续的和约、经济危机,以及法西斯与极权政权的崛起,后者被 CED 自己标为"尤其是"。先决定 1914 年与 1939 年是一条链还是两个事件。