Financial Sector
AP Macroeconomics Topic 4 7:55 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
Chapters
Transcript
Look at the money in your hand.
看看你手里的钱。
It is only paper.
它只是纸。
It is worth something because everyone agrees to accept it.
它之所以有价值，是因为每个人都愿意接受它。
And out of millions of those agreements grows this: a market where people's savings become buildings, machines and jobs.
而由千百万个这样的约定，长出了这样的市场：人们的储蓄在这里变成厂房、机器和工作岗位。
Behind it all sits one number — the interest rate.
这一切的背后是一个数字——利率。
Unit four: the financial sector.
第四单元：金融部门。
We will meet financial assets, real interest rates, money, and the banks that create it.
我们会认识金融资产、实际利率、货币，以及创造货币的银行。
Then the two graphs this exam asks for again and again — the money market, and the market for loanable funds.
然后是本考试反复考查的两张图——货币市场，和可贷资金市场。
Let's begin.
让我们开始吧。
A financial asset is a claim that stores value and can be sold later.
金融资产是一种储存价值、并且可以在以后卖出的权利。
Three matter here.
这里有三种最重要。
A stock is a share of ownership in a company.
股票是公司所有权的一份。
A bond is a loan that pays fixed interest.
债券是一笔支付固定利息的贷款。
A bank deposit is safe and easy to spend.
银行存款安全，也容易花出去。
Every asset trades off risk, return, and liquidity — how fast it turns back into cash.
每种资产都要在风险、回报和流动性之间取舍——流动性就是变回现金的快慢。
Higher risk must pay a higher return.
风险越高，就必须支付越高的回报。
Here is the bond rule the exam loves.
这是考试最爱的债券规则。
A bond pays a fixed number of dollars every year — say fifty.
一张债券每年支付固定的钱——比如五十美元。
If it costs one thousand dollars, that is a five percent return.
如果它卖一千美元，那就是百分之五的回报。
Let the price fall to five hundred, and the same fifty dollars is ten percent.
让价格跌到五百美元， 同样的五十美元就变成了百分之十。
Price and yield always move in opposite directions.
价格和收益率总是朝相反方向变动。
So when market interest rates rise, the price of older bonds falls.
所以市场利率上升时，已发行债券的价格会下跌。
Now separate two interest rates.
现在把两种利率分开。
The nominal rate is the one written in the contract.
名义利率是写在合同上的那个利率。
The real rate is what you actually gain in buying power: the nominal rate minus inflation.
实际利率是你在购买力上真正得到的：名义利率减去通货膨胀率。
Lend at six percent while inflation is two percent, and you really gain four.
以百分之六借出，而通胀是百分之二，你真正得到的是百分之四。
If inflation jumps to seven, your real rate is minus one — the lender loses, and the borrower wins.
如果通胀跳到百分之七，你的实际利率就是负一——放款人损失，借款人得利。
So what is money?
那么，什么是货币？
Money is anything people widely accept in exchange.
货币是人们普遍接受、用于交换的任何东西。
It has three functions.
它有三项职能。
It is a medium of exchange, so you never swap chickens for shoes.
它是交换媒介，所以你不必用鸡去换鞋。
It is a unit of account, one shared measure of value.
它是记账单位，一个共同的价值尺度。
And it is a store of value over time.
它还是价值储藏手段。
The diagram shows a fourth job, standard of deferred payment, but your exam asks for the first three.
图上还有第四项职能，延期支付的标准， 但你的考试只要求前三项。
Modern money is fiat money: it works because the government makes it legal tender and people trust it, not because of gold.
现代货币是法定货币：它之所以有效，是因为政府规定它是法定货币，人们也信任它， 而不是因为有黄金支持。
We measure it in tiers, by how easy it is to spend.
我们按容易花出去的程度分层来衡量它。
M one is currency plus checkable deposits, the most liquid.
M1是通货加上可开支票的存款，流动性最强。
M two is M one plus savings deposits.
M2是M1加上储蓄存款。
Below both sits the monetary base: cash in circulation plus bank reserves.
在两者之下是基础货币：流通中的现金加上银行准备金。
Banks are where new money is born.
银行是新货币诞生的地方。
Under fractional reserve banking, a bank keeps only a fraction of your deposit as required reserves and lends the rest.
在部分准备金银行制度下，银行只把你存款的一部分留作法定准备金， 其余的贷出去。
That loan is spent, deposited at another bank, and lent again.
这笔贷款被花掉，又存进另一家银行，然后再贷出去。
Round after round the money supply grows.
一轮又一轮，货币供给不断增加。
The money multiplier is one divided by the reserve ratio.
货币乘数等于一除以准备金率。
Let's work one properly.
我们来完整地做一道。
A bank takes a new deposit of one thousand dollars; the required reserve ratio is twenty percent.
一家银行收到一笔一千美元的新存款，法定准备金率是百分之二十。
Step one: required reserves are twenty percent of one thousand — two hundred dollars.
第一步：法定准备金是一千的百分之二十——二百美元。
Step two: that leaves eight hundred dollars of excess reserves, the part the bank may lend.
第二步：这样就剩下八百美元的超额准备金，也就是银行可以贷出去的部分。
Step three: the money multiplier is one divided by zero point two, which is five.
第三步：货币乘数等于一除以零点二，也就是五。
Step four: eight hundred times five gives four thousand dollars.
第四步：八百乘以五，得到四千美元。
And there is the trap: you multiply the excess reserves, never the whole deposit.
陷阱就在这里：你要乘的是超额准备金，绝不是整笔存款。
Now the money market — the first of the two graphs you must be able to draw.
现在看货币市场——你必须会画的两张图中的第一张。
Along the bottom, the quantity of money. Up the side, the nominal interest rate.
横轴是货币量，纵轴是名义利率。
Money demand slopes downward, because a high rate is the price of holding cash.
货币需求向下倾斜，因为高利率正是持有现金的代价。
Money supply is a vertical line, chosen by the central bank.
货币供给是一条垂直线，由中央银行决定。
Where they cross, the rate is set — and watch it fall when more money arrives.
两者相交处定下利率—— 看，当更多货币进来时，利率就下降了。
Here is the same graph drawn the way your answer should look.
这就是同一张图，画成你答题时该有的样子。
Label both axes.
两条轴都要标注。
Label money demand, and label money supply.
标出货币需求，也标出货币供给。
Now the central bank buys bonds and puts more money into the system.
现在中央银行买入债券，向体系里投放更多货币。
The supply line shifts right.
供给线向右移动。
The economy slides down the demand curve, and the interest rate falls from the first level to the second.
经济沿着需求曲线向下滑动，利率从第一个水平降到第二个水平。
And money demand itself shifts right when the price level or real output rises.
而货币需求本身，在物价水平上升或实际产出增加时会向右移动。
That is monetary policy.
这就是货币政策。
Expansionary, or easy money: the central bank buys bonds, the money supply rises, the interest rate falls, investment and consumption rise, and aggregate demand shifts right.
扩张性政策，也叫宽松货币：中央银行买入债券，货币供给上升， 利率下降，投资和消费上升，总需求向右移动。
Use it against a recession.
用它来对付衰退。
Contractionary, or tight, money is the mirror image: sell bonds, and aggregate demand shifts left.
紧缩性政策正好相反：卖出债券，总需求向左移动。
Open market operations is the main tool; the bank can also change the reserve requirement, or the discount rate it charges banks to borrow from it.
公开市场操作是主要的工具； 中央银行也可以改变法定准备金率，或者改变银行向它借款时的贴现率。
Follow the whole chain, because the chain earns the marks.
要把整条链条走完，因为链条本身就是得分点。
The central bank raises the interest rate.
中央银行提高利率。
Borrowing becomes dearer, saving is rewarded, and the currency tends to rise.
借钱变贵，储蓄有回报，本国货币往往升值。
So spending, investment and exports fall.
于是消费、投资和出口都下降。
Aggregate demand falls.
总需求下降。
Output and the price level fall with it, and inflation slows.
产出和物价水平随之下降，通货膨胀放缓。
Monetary policy works through the interest rate — say so, because that is the link the marks are on.
货币政策是通过利率起作用的——一定要写出来，因为得分点就在这一环。
One modern update, and it is in the course.
还有一个现代的更新，而且它就在课程范围内。
Central banks today run an ample reserves system.
今天的中央银行实行充裕准备金制度。
Instead of nudging the quantity of money, the bank sets administered rates — above all interest on reserves, IOR, the interest it pays banks on the reserves they hold.
银行不再去微调货币数量，而是设定管理利率——最重要的是它为银行准备金支付的利息。
That steers the policy rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other.
它引导政策利率，也就是银行之间相互拆借的隔夜利率。
In the older limited-reserves system it shifted reserve supply instead.
在过去的有限准备金制度下，中央银行改变的是准备金的供给。
Now the second graph: the market for loanable funds.
现在看第二张图：可贷资金市场。
This one sets the real interest rate.
这张图决定实际利率。
Supply comes from national savings — private saving plus the government's budget balance — and slopes upward, because a higher real rate makes people save more.
供给来自国民储蓄——私人储蓄加上政府的预算余额——并且向上倾斜， 因为实际利率越高，人们储蓄越多。
Demand comes from borrowers.
需求来自借款人。
Where they meet, saving becomes investment.
在两者相遇的地方，储蓄就变成了投资。
Now watch a big new borrower arrive: demand shifts right, and the real rate is bid up.
现在看一个大借款人出现：需求向右移动，实际利率被抬高。
That big borrower is usually the government.
那个大借款人通常就是政府。
A budget deficit is negative public saving, so the government must borrow to cover it.
预算赤字就是负的公共储蓄，所以政府必须借钱来弥补。
Demand for loanable funds shifts right, from the first curve to the second, and the real interest rate is bid up.
可贷资金的需求向右移动，从第一条曲线移到第二条，实际利率被抬高。
Private firms facing that higher rate invest less.
面对更高利率的私人企业投资减少。
That is crowding out — the most tested idea in this unit.
这就是挤出效应——本单元考得最多的一个概念。
So which graph do you draw?
那么该画哪张图？
Ask what the question is about.
先问这道题在讲什么。
If it is monetary policy, the money supply, or the nominal rate, draw the money market: demand sloping down, supply standing vertical.
如果讲的是货币政策、货币供给或名义利率， 就画货币市场：需求向下倾斜，供给竖直站立。
If it is saving, a budget deficit, or crowding out, draw the loanable funds market: supply up, demand down, real rate on the side.
如果讲的是储蓄、预算赤字或挤出效应， 就画可贷资金市场：供给向上，需求向下，纵轴是实际利率。
Choose badly, and the wrong graph loses every mark on the question.
选错了，画错的图会让这道题的每一分都丢掉。
Three marks students throw away.
三个学生常丢的分。
First, the money supply line is vertical; draw it sloping and the graph is simply wrong.
第一，货币供给线是垂直的；画成倾斜的，这张图就完全错了。
Second, keep the two rates apart: the real rate is nominal minus inflation, and loanable funds uses the real one.
第二，把两种利率分清楚：实际利率等于名义利率减去通胀率，而可贷资金市场用的是实际利率。
Third, in a multiplier question, find the excess reserves first, then multiply.
第三，遇到乘数题，先求出超额准备金，再去乘。
Get these three right and this unit is yours.
把这三点做对，这个单元就是你的了。