Economic Indicators and the Business Cycle
AP Macroeconomics Topic 2 9:58 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
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Transcript
Two ordinary scenes.
两个普通的场景。
A supermarket aisle, where the same basket of food costs more than it did last year.
一条超市货架，同样一篮食品比去年更贵。
And a long queue of people, waiting.
还有一条长长的队伍，人们在等待。
Neither is an opinion.
这都不是看法。
Each is a number, measured every month — and those numbers tell a government whether the economy is healthy or sick.
它们都是每个月测量出来的数字——政府正是靠这些数字，判断经济是健康还是生病。
Macroeconomics watches three numbers.
宏观经济学盯着三个数字。
Output: how much a country produces in a year.
产出：一个国家一年生产了多少。
Jobs: how many people who want work actually have it.
就业：想工作的人里，有多少真的有工作。
Prices: how fast prices are rising.
价格：物价上涨得有多快。
Unit Two is where you learn to measure all three, and to read them correctly.
第二单元就是教你测量这三样，并且正确地读懂它们。
Here is the plan.
这是本课的安排。
Gross domestic product and the circular flow.
国内生产总值和循环流动模型。
What that one number misses.
这个数字漏掉了什么。
Unemployment.
失业。
Price indices and inflation.
价格指数与通货膨胀。
What inflation costs.
通货膨胀的代价。
Real against nominal.
实际值与名义值。
And finally the business cycle.
最后是经济周期。
Here is the picture behind every macro number: the circular-flow model.
这是每一个宏观数字背后的图：循环流动模型。
Households own the workers and the land; firms use them to make goods.
家庭拥有劳动力和土地，企业用它们生产商品。
Money goes round: households spend, firms pay wages, rent and profit.
钱在循环：家庭花钱，企业付出工资、租金和利润。
So total spending equals total income.
所以总支出等于总收入。
Money is injected in — investment, government spending, exports — and leaks out into saving, taxes and imports.
还有钱被注入进来——投资、政府支出、出口；也有钱漏出去——储蓄、税收和进口。
Gross domestic product is the market value of all final goods and services made within a country in one year.
国内生产总值，是一个国家一年之内生产的全部最终产品与服务的市场价值。
Two words matter.
有两个词很关键。
Final: count the finished loaf, not the flour, or the same value is counted twice.
最终：只算做好的面包，不算面粉，否则同一份价值会被算两次。
Inside: where it was made, not who owns the firm.
境内：看的是在哪里生产，而不是公司归谁所有。
Three ways to measure it, and all three must agree.
测量方法有三种，三种必须一致。
The one the exam asks for is the expenditure approach, also called the spending approach.
考试最常考的是支出法。
Add consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports — exports minus imports.
把消费、投资、政府购买，加上净出口——也就是出口减进口，全部相加。
Imports are subtracted because they were made abroad.
减去进口，是因为它们在国外生产。
Here that comes to one thousand two hundred and fifty billion.
这里算出来是一万二千五百亿。
Exclude three things: parts used up making something else, second-hand goods, and shares and bonds.
要排除三样东西：被用掉的中间投入品、二手商品，还有股票和债券。
But a big total can hide a lot, and those are the limitations of GDP.
但一个很大的总量可能掩盖很多东西，这些就是 GDP 的局限。
Divide by the population and you get GDP per capita, output per person.
除以人口，就得到人均 GDP，也就是人均产出。
On the left, what that shows: average income, the size of the economy, growth over time.
左边是它能显示的：平均收入、经济的规模、多年的增长。
On the right, what it misses.
右边是它漏掉的。
It omits non-market production — unpaid housework, volunteering — and the underground economy, all the work that is never reported.
它不计入非市场生产——没人付钱的家务、志愿工作—— 也不计入地下经济，那些从不上报的活动。
It says nothing about the distribution of income: who actually gets it.
它对收入的分配只字不提：钱到底落在谁手里。
It ignores leisure.
它忽略闲暇。
And it ignores environmental damage, so a country that cuts down its forests and pollutes its rivers records that as growth.
它还忽略环境破坏，所以一个国家砍光森林、污染河流，在账上反而记成增长。
A higher figure usually means a better life. Not always.
数字更高通常意味着生活更好，但并不总是如此。
Now jobs.
现在看就业。
The labour force is people with work, plus people without work who are actively looking.
劳动力等于有工作的人，加上没有工作但正在积极找工作的人。
Actively looking is the trap.
“积极找”就是陷阱。
Stop looking, and you are not unemployed at all — you leave the labour force.
一旦不再找，你就不算失业——你退出了劳动力。
The rate is the unemployed divided by the labour force.
失业率等于失业人数除以劳动力。
So when people give up, it can fall while things get worse.
所以当人们放弃时，它可能下降，情况却在变糟。
It also misses the underemployed — people working part-time, or far below their skill, who count as fully employed.
它也漏掉了不充分就业的人——做兼职、或者远低于自己技能水平工作的人， 在统计上算作充分就业。
A real exam question.
来做一道真题。
Foxhound's labour force is fifteen million, and nine hundred thousand people are not working but are looking.
福克斯霍德的劳动力是一千五百万人， 另有九十万人没有工作但正在找工作。
Employed is the labour force minus the unemployed: fourteen million one hundred thousand.
就业人数等于劳动力减去失业人数：一千四百一十万。 再算失业率。
Now the unemployment rate. Nine hundred thousand divided by fifteen million, times one hundred. That is six percent.
九十万除以一千五百万，再乘以一百，等于百分之六。
Then the twist: suppose some employed people retire.
接着是转折：假设一些在职的人退休了。
They stop looking, so they leave the labour force.
他们不再找工作，于是退出了劳动力。
The unemployed number is the same, but the labour force shrinks — so the rate goes up.
失业人数没变，劳动力却变小了——所以失业率反而上升。
The same table answers a second question, and the exam asks it just as often.
同一张表还能回答第二个问题，而考试问它的次数一样多。
A country has one hundred and fifty million people employed, ten million unemployed and actively looking, and forty million working-age adults who are not looking at all.
一个国家有一亿五千万人就业，一千万人失业并且在积极找工作， 还有四千万适龄成年人根本没有在找工作。
First the labour force: employed plus unemployed, one hundred and sixty million.
先算劳动力：就业人数加失业人数，一亿六千万。
The unemployment rate is ten divided by one hundred and sixty, times one hundred — six point two five percent.
失业率是一千万除以一亿六千万，再乘以一百——百分之六点二五。
Now the labour-force participation rate: the labour force divided by the whole working-age population.
再算劳动力参与率：劳动力除以整个适龄人口。
That population is two hundred million — the one hundred and sixty in the labour force, plus the forty who are not looking.
这个人口是两亿——劳动力里的一亿六千万，加上没有在找工作的四千万。
So one hundred and sixty divided by two hundred is eighty percent.
所以一亿六千万除以两亿，等于百分之八十。
Watch the denominators.
注意分母。
The unemployment rate divides by the labour force; the participation rate divides by the working-age population.
失业率除以劳动力，参与率除以适龄人口。
Using the same bottom line for both is the commonest way this question is thrown away.
两个都用同一个分母，是这道题最常见的丢分方式。
Not all unemployment is the same.
失业并不都是一回事。
Frictional is short: between one job and the next.
摩擦性失业是短期的：从一份工作到下一份之间。
Structural is deeper: your skills, or your town, no longer match the jobs on offer.
结构性失业更深：你的技能，或者你所在的城市，和现有岗位对不上了。
Cyclical is what a slump causes, when demand across the economy falls.
周期性失业是经济下滑造成的，那时整个经济的需求都在下降。
Add frictional and structural together and you get the natural rate of unemployment.
把摩擦性失业和结构性失业相加，就得到自然失业率。
There, cyclical unemployment is zero, and economists call that full employment.
在那里，周期性失业为零，经济学家把这种状态叫做充分就业。
Read that carefully.
要仔细读这句话。
Full employment does not mean nobody is unemployed.
充分就业并不表示没有人失业。
People are always between jobs.
总有人处在换工作的间隙。
The natural rate is never zero.
自然失业率永远不会是零。
Now prices.
现在看价格。
Inflation means the price level is rising.
通货膨胀是价格水平在上升。
Deflation means it is falling.
通货紧缩是价格水平在下降。
Disinflation is the tricky one: prices still rise, just more slowly.
反通货膨胀最容易搞混：价格仍在上升，只是涨得更慢。
To measure it, we price a fixed basket of goods each year against a base year.
要测量它，我们每年给一篮固定的商品定价，再和基准年比较。
That gives the consumer price index, the C P I.
这样就得到了消费者价格指数。
Worked out here: the basket cost four hundred in the base year and four hundred and forty now.
这里已经算好了：这一篮商品在基准年花四百，现在花四百四。
Divide, times one hundred: the index is one hundred and ten, so ten percent inflation.
相除再乘一百，指数是一百一十，也就是百分之十的通货膨胀。
But the index is biased.
但这个指数是有偏差的。
Shoppers switch to cheaper goods; the fixed basket cannot.
消费者会改买更便宜的东西，固定的篮子却不会变。
A better phone at the same price is really cheaper.
同样价格但更好的手机，其实是变便宜了。
Both overstate the true rise.
两者都会高估真实的涨幅。
So why does inflation cost anything?
那么通货膨胀为什么有代价？
Because it moves money between people.
因为它把钱在人与人之间转移。
Suppose everyone planned for three percent, but prices rose five — higher than people expected.
假设大家原本预计百分之三，价格却涨了百分之五——比人们预期的更高。
Lenders and savers lose: they are paid back in money that buys less.
贷款人和储蓄者吃亏：收回的钱能买的东西更少。
Borrowers gain, for the same reason.
借款人则因为同样的原因获利。
So unexpected inflation hurts lenders and savers and helps borrowers.
所以意料之外的通货膨胀伤害贷款人和储蓄者，而让借款人得利。
Anyone on a fixed income loses, because the payment stays while prices climb.
靠固定收入生活的人也吃亏，因为收入不变，物价却在涨。
There are menu costs too — the real trouble of changing every price — and the uncertainty discourages investment.
还有菜单成本——改动每一个价格本身就很麻烦——而不确定性会打击投资。
When inflation is anticipated, contracts and interest rates already allow for it.
如果通货膨胀是被预期到的，合同和利率早就算进去了。
The surprise does the damage.
真正伤人的是意外的那部分。
This is why we split nominal from real.
这正是要把名义值和实际值分开的原因。
Nominal uses today's prices — current prices — so it rises when output grows and when prices rise.
名义值用当年的价格，也就是现价，所以产量增加它会升，价格上涨它也会升。
Real uses base-year prices, held constant, so only output moves it.
实际值用基准年的价格，价格保持不变，所以只有产量能让它变动。
To convert, divide nominal by the price index and multiply by one hundred.
换算时，用名义值除以价格指数，再乘以一百。
Growth is always measured with real output.
衡量增长，永远用实际产出。
One more exam question.
再来一道真题。
Louland's year one is the base year, with output of eight hundred thousand.
劳兰德的第一年是基准年，产出是八十万。
In year two, nominal output is one million and thirty-five thousand, and the deflator is one hundred and fifteen.
第二年，名义产出是一百零三万五千，价格指数是一百一十五。
First, strip the prices out: divide by the deflator, multiply by one hundred.
第一步，把价格的影响剥掉：除以价格指数，再乘以一百。
Real output is nine hundred thousand.
实际产出是九十万。
Now share it out.
接下来分到每个人头上。
In year one, real output per person is eight hundred.
第一年人均实际产出是八百。
In year two it is seven hundred and fifty.
第二年是七百五十。
So living standards fell — even though nominal GDP still went up by nearly thirty percent.
所以生活水平下降了——尽管名义国内生产总值还上涨了将近百分之三十。
Real output does not grow in a straight line.
实际产出不会沿直线增长。
It swings around its long-run trend, and that swing is the business cycle.
它围绕长期趋势上下摆动，这种摆动就是经济周期。
Output climbs in an expansion, reaches a peak, then falls — that fall is a contraction, or recession — down to a trough, and the recovery starts again.
产出在扩张中上升，到达顶峰，然后下降——这个下降叫收缩，也就是衰退—— 一直降到谷底，然后复苏重新开始。
A recession usually means two quarters in a row of falling real output.
衰退通常指连续两个季度实际产出下降。
Unemployment rises on the way down, falls on the way up; and inflation moves roughly the opposite way, which is the tension the rest of this course spends its time managing.
失业在下行时上升，在上行时下降； 而通货膨胀大致朝相反的方向走——这正是这门课接下来一直在设法平衡的矛盾。
One last idea, and Unit Three leans on it.
最后一个概念，第三单元会一直用到它。
Potential output is what a country makes when unemployment sits at its natural rate.
潜在产出，是失业处在自然失业率时， 一个国家能生产出的产量。
The output gap is actual output minus potential.
产出缺口等于实际产出减去潜在产出。
Below potential is a recessionary gap: idle workers, idle factories.
低于潜在产出，是衰退缺口：闲置的工人，闲置的工厂。
Above it is an inflationary gap: the economy running hot.
高于它，是通货膨胀缺口：经济过热。
Here the gap is minus sixty — running cold.
这里缺口是负六十——经济偏冷。
Three marks students throw away.
三个学生常丢的分。
First, always use real output for growth: divide nominal by the price index, times one hundred, or you are only measuring inflation.
第一，衡量增长永远用实际产出： 名义值除以价格指数，再乘以一百，否则你量的只是通货膨胀。
Second, discouraged workers leave the labour force, so the unemployment rate can fall for a bad reason.
第二，灰心工人退出了劳动力，所以失业率下降有可能是坏消息。
Third, at full employment the rate is not zero — the natural rate is frictional plus structural.
第三，充分就业时失业率并不是零——自然失业率等于摩擦性加结构性。
And show every line; a correct method still earns marks.
还有，每一步都要写出来，方法正确仍能得分。