External Influences and Strategy
A-Level Business Topic 6 8:09 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
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Transcript
In two thousand and eight, thousands of well-run firms went under.
二〇〇八年，成千上万经营良好的企业倒闭了。
Their products were good. Their staff were good. Their costs were under control.
它们的产品很好，员工很好， 成本也控制得住。
What killed them was outside the building: banks stopped lending, customers stopped spending, and the whole economy turned.
真正击垮它们的，来自公司大门之外： 银行停止放贷，顾客停止消费，整个经济掉头向下。
No business controls the weather it operates in — but the firms that survive are the ones that watch it, and adapt early.
没有哪家企业能控制自己所处的"天气"—— 但活下来的，都是那些一直盯着天气、并且及早调整的企业。
Today: the business cycle.
今天我们来看：经济周期。
Interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, tax and unemployment.
利率、汇率、通货膨胀、税收与失业。
The wider PESTLE forces.
更广泛的宏观环境六大力量。
And then strategy — SWOT, and the tools that turn all of this into a decision.
然后是战略——SWOT 分析， 以及把这一切转化为决策的工具。
Let's begin.
让我们开始吧。
The business cycle is the way the whole economy rises and falls over time, around a long-term upward trend.
经济周期是指整个经济随时间起落的方式，围绕着一条长期向上的趋势线波动。
It has four stages.
它有四个阶段。
In a boom, growth is fast: demand is high, but costs and prices are rising too.
繁荣期增长很快：需求旺盛，但成本和价格也在上升。
In a recession, demand and output fall, sales drop, and some firms close.
衰退期需求和产出下降，销售下滑，有些企业倒闭。
A slump is a deep, long recession, with very low demand.
萧条是更深、更久的衰退，需求极低。
Then comes recovery, when demand and output start to climb again.
接着是复苏期，需求和产出重新回升。
So what does a firm do?
那么企业该怎么做？
In a boom it expands and hires.
在繁荣期，它扩张、招人。
In a recession it cuts costs, holds less stock, and may aim only to survive until the recovery.
在衰退期，它削减成本、减少存货，甚至只求撑到复苏。
The interest rate is the price of borrowing money, written as a percentage.
利率是借钱的价格，用百分比表示。
When rates rise, a business is hit twice, and the exam wants both.
利率上升时，企业会受到两方面打击， 而考试两方面都要答。
First, the cost side: any firm with loans now pays more interest, and that comes straight off profit.
第一是成本方面：有贷款的企业要付更多利息， 这直接从利润里扣掉。
Second, the demand side: loans and mortgages cost customers more, so they spend less — especially on things bought on credit.
第二是需求方面：贷款和按揭对顾客来说更贵了， 所以他们花得更少——尤其是那些靠信贷购买的东西。
New investment also stalls, because borrowing is expensive.
新的投资也会停滞，因为借钱太贵。
When rates fall, every one of those effects runs in reverse.
利率下降时，上述每一个效应都反过来。
A house-builder has eight million pounds of variable-rate loans.
某房地产开发商有八百万英镑的浮动利率贷款。
The central bank raises interest rates from two percent to five percent.
中央银行把利率从百分之二上调到百分之五。
Explain the effect on this business.
请说明这对该企业的影响。
Pause and try it.
先暂停，自己试一试。
On the cost side: interest goes from eight million times zero point zero two — a hundred and sixty thousand pounds — to eight million times zero point zero five, which is four hundred thousand.
成本方面：利息从八百万乘以百分之二——十六万英镑—— 上升到八百万乘以百分之五，也就是四十万英镑。
That is two hundred and forty thousand pounds straight off profit.
这就有二十四万英镑直接从利润中扣掉。
On the demand side: mortgages become dearer, so fewer buyers can afford a house.
需求方面：按揭变贵了， 买得起房子的人变少了。
Both effects hit this firm at once, because a house is bought on credit and is a postponable purchase — which is why a highly geared house-builder is unusually sensitive to interest rates.
这两个效应同时打在这家企业身上， 因为房子是靠贷款购买的，而且这笔消费可以往后推。
The exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another, and it moves constantly.
汇率是一种货币用另一种货币表示的价格，而且时刻在变。
If the currency appreciates — an appreciation, a rise in value — exports become dearer abroad, and imports become cheaper at home.
如果本币升值——价值上升——出口在国外就变贵，进口在国内就变便宜。
On a depreciation — a fall in value — exports become cheaper abroad, and imports become dearer.
如果本币贬值——价值下降——出口在国外变便宜，进口变贵。
There is a memory hook for this: SPICED. Strong Pound, Imports Cheaper, Exports Dearer.
这里有一个记忆口诀：SPICED，即"本币强，进口便宜，出口变贵"。
So an exporter usually gains from a weak currency, and an importer gains from a strong one — the same movement helps one and hurts the other.
所以出口商通常在本币疲软时获益，进口商则在本币强势时获益—— 同一个变动，帮了一方，也伤了另一方。
Inflation is a general rise in prices over time.
通货膨胀是物价随时间的普遍上涨。
It hits a business three ways.
它从三个方面冲击企业。
Costs go up: materials and wages both rise.
成本上升：原材料和工资都在涨。
Planning gets harder, because next year's numbers become uncertain.
规划变难：明年的数字变得不确定。
And customers can afford less, so real demand falls.
顾客的购买力下降，实际需求因此减少。
Low, steady inflation is usually best for business — prices creep up predictably, and nobody panics.
对企业来说，通常是低而稳定的通胀最好——物价可预测地缓慢上升，谁也不会恐慌。
Two more economic levers.
还有两个经济杠杆。
Taxation is money the government takes from people and firms.
税收是政府从个人和企业那里拿走的钱。
A direct tax is taken from income or profit — income tax, corporation tax.
直接税来自收入或利润——比如个人所得税、企业所得税。
An indirect tax is added to spending — a sales tax on goods.
间接税则加在消费上——比如商品销售税。
Higher taxes of either kind leave people and firms with less to spend, so demand falls.
无论哪一种，税负加重都会让个人和企业可花的钱变少，需求因此下降。
Unemployment cuts both ways: high unemployment lowers demand, because fewer people have wages — but it also makes workers easier and cheaper to hire.
失业则有两面：高失业率降低需求，因为有工资收入的人变少了—— 但它同时也让企业更容易、更便宜地招到工人。
Now the wider forces.
再来看更广泛的力量。
Political influences are government decisions, trade rules, and how stable the country is — they change what a firm can safely plan for.
政治因素包括政府决策、贸易规则，以及国家是否稳定—— 它们决定企业能安心规划到什么程度。
Legal influences are the legislation a firm must obey: employment, consumer safety, competition, the environment.
法律因素是企业必须遵守的法规： 雇佣、消费者安全、竞争、环境。
Break them and you pay fines and lose your reputation.
违反了，就要交罚款，还会失去声誉。
Social influences are changes in society itself — an ageing population, new tastes, new attitudes — and they change what people buy.
社会因素是社会本身的变化——人口老龄化、新的口味、新的观念—— 它们改变人们购买什么。
Three more.
还有三项。
Technological change creates new products and cuts costs — but a firm that fails to keep up falls behind very fast.
技术变革催生新产品、降低成本——但跟不上的企业会迅速掉队。
Environmental pressure comes from both rules and customers: cut pollution, cut waste, and operate sustainably.
环境压力既来自法规，也来自顾客：减少污染、减少浪费、可持续经营。
Ethical influences are about acting in a morally right way — fair pay, honest selling — which builds trust even when it costs more.
道德因素关乎以合乎道义的方式行事——公平的薪酬、诚实的销售—— 即使成本更高，也能建立信任。
Put all six together and you have a PEST or PESTLE scan: political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental.
把这六项放在一起，就是宏观环境分析（PESTLE）： 政治、经济、社会、技术、法律和环境。
So how does a firm respond to all of this?
那么企业该如何应对这一切？
With a strategy — and what strategy means here is precise.
靠战略。
A strategy is a long-term plan for reaching the firm's main objectives.
战略是为实现企业主要目标而制定的长期计划。
Strategic management is the work of setting that plan, putting it into action, and checking whether it actually worked.
战略管理就是制定这个计划、把它付诸实施，并检验它是否真的奏效的工作。
And the goal is competitive advantage — a real reason customers choose you instead of a rival: a lower cost, a better product, or a stronger brand.
而目标是竞争优势——顾客选择你而不是对手的真实理由： 更低的成本、更好的产品，或者更强的品牌。
The most-used tool is SWOT.
最常用的工具是 SWOT。
A SWOT analysis studies a firm's position under four headings.
SWOT 分析从四个方面研究企业的处境。
Strengths and weaknesses are internal — inside the firm, and within its control.
优势和劣势是内部的——在企业内部，企业能够控制。
Opportunities and threats are external — outside the firm, and not in its control.
机会和威胁是外部的——在企业之外，企业无法控制。
That split is exactly where students lose marks, so be certain of it.
学生失分恰恰就在这个划分上，所以一定要记牢。
The point is to act on the grid: use your strengths to seize the opportunities, and fix or defend against your weaknesses and threats.
重点是要根据这张表采取行动：用你的优势去抓住机会， 并修补或防范你的劣势与威胁。
SWOT is not the only tool.
SWOT 并不是唯一的工具。
A decision tree lays out each choice as a branch, with the probability and the payoff of every outcome, so the options can be compared with numbers rather than opinions.
决策树把每一个选择画成一个分支， 标上每种结果的概率和收益，这样就能用数字而不是感觉来比较各个方案。
Other tools do the same job in different ways — the Boston Matrix for a product range, break-even for output.
其他工具用不同方式做同样的事——波士顿矩阵用于产品组合， 盈亏平衡分析用于产量。
Every planning tool does one thing: it turns messy information about the business and its environment into a clearer choice.
每一种规划工具都只做一件事： 把关于企业及其环境的杂乱信息，变成一个更清晰的选择。
Three marks students give away.
三个学生白白丢掉的分。
First, for any economic change, explain BOTH sides — the effect on costs and the effect on demand.
第一，面对任何经济变动，两方面都要答—— 对成本的影响和对需求的影响。
Second, remember SPICED for the exchange rate: strong pound, imports cheaper, exports dearer.
第二，汇率记住 SPICED 口诀： 本币强，进口便宜，出口变贵。
Third, keep SWOT the right way round: strengths and weaknesses internal, opportunities and threats external.
第三，SWOT 不要装反： 优势和劣势是内部的，机会和威胁是外部的。
Get these right, and this topic is yours.
把这些做对，这个专题就是你的了。
Five leftover facts.
还剩五件事实。
First, a slump is a deep long recession; in a boom firms expand, and in a recession they cut costs and hold less stock.
第一，萧条是深度而漫长的衰退；繁荣时企业扩张，衰退时它们削减成本并少存货。
Second, when interest rates fall, spending usually rises.
第二，利率下降时，支出通常会上升。
Third, low steady inflation is usually best for business.
第三，低而稳定的通胀通常对商业最好。
Fourth, PESTLE checks political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental forces.
第四，PESTLE 检查政治、经济、社会、技术、法律和环境力量。
Fifth, a decision tree weighs each choice by the probability and payoff of its outcomes.
第五，决策树按每个选择的概率和收益来权衡。