Desafíos políticos globales
Diploma del Bachillerato Internacional · IB Diploma · Global Politics · HL Tema 4 5:44 Narración en inglés · Subtítulos en inglés + 中文 quemados en pantalla
Capítulos
Transcripción
In August 2022 heavy monsoon rain and melting glaciers put about one third of Pakistan under water.
2022 年 8 月，暴雨季风和冰川融化使巴基斯坦约三分之一的国土被淹。
More than seventeen hundred people died.
一千七百多人死亡。
The floods spread disease, destroyed crops and homes, and pushed millions into poverty.
洪水传播疾病，摧毁庄稼和房屋，使数百万人陷入贫困。
One event joined four challenges: environment, health, poverty and equality.
一个事件连起了四项挑战：环境、健康、贫困和平等。
Pakistan produces less than one per cent of the world's greenhouse gases, yet about a third of the country was flooded.
巴基斯坦的温室气体排放不到世界的 1%，却有约三分之一的国土被淹。
Those who caused least can suffer most.
造成问题最少的人可能受害最深。
Paper 3 asks you to see links like these.
试卷三要求你看出这样的联系。
The higher-level extension studies global political challenges: problems that cross borders and that no state can solve alone.
高级拓展研究全球性政治挑战：跨越国界、任何国家都无法单独解决的问题。
You research real, recent cases.
你要研究真实的近期案例。
Paper 3, an hour and a half and thirty per cent of the higher-level grade, gives you stimulus material and asks you to analyse the challenges with your cases.
试卷三时长一个半小时，占高级成绩的 30%，给你材料，要求你结合自己的案例分析这些挑战。
There are eight challenges: borders, environment, equality, health, identity, poverty, security and technology.
共有八项挑战：边界、环境、平等、健康、身份认同、贫困、安全和技术。
Each crosses borders, and a single case often touches several of them at once.
每一项都跨越国界，一个案例往往同时涉及其中几项。
A global political challenge crosses borders, affects many actors, and causes political disagreement about who should act and who should pay.
全球性政治挑战跨越国界，影响众多行为体，并在谁该行动、谁该买单的问题上引发政治分歧。
Analyse each case in five steps. Define the challenge in one sentence. Trace its levels. Name the actors and their interests: states, IGOs, NGOs, companies, movements and the people affected. Ask which institutions and rules deal with it, and whether they can enforce decisions. Only then evaluate the responses, using the key concepts.
每个案例分五步分析：用一句话定义挑战；梳理它的层面；列出行为体及其利益：国家、政府间组织、非政府组织、公司、社会运动和受影响者；考察由哪些机构和规则处理，它们能否强制执行。 最后才用关键概念评价各种应对。
Levels: how the challenge appears locally, nationally and globally, and how they affect each other.
层面：挑战在地方、国家和全球层面如何表现，以及各层面如何相互影响。
In Pakistan, villages lost crops and homes; the national economy and budget were hit; and at the global level the floods fed demands for a loss and damage fund.
在巴基斯坦，村庄失去了庄稼和房屋；国家经济和财政受到冲击；在全球层面，洪水推动了设立“损失与损害”基金的诉求。
Climate change is global, but emissions are controlled by sovereign states.
气候变化是全球问题，但排放由主权国家控制。
The 1992 framework convention set up yearly negotiations.
1992 年的框架公约建立了年度谈判机制。
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol set binding cuts, for richer countries only.
1997 年的《京都议定书》规定了有约束力的减排，但只针对较富裕的国家。
The 2015 Paris Agreement lets every country set its own target, a nationally determined contribution, aiming for well below two degrees.
2015 年的《巴黎协定》让每个国家自定目标，即国家自主贡献，目标是远低于 2 °C。
Paris has almost universal membership because no target is forced on anyone.
《巴黎协定》几乎得到普遍加入，因为不强迫任何国家接受目标。
The same design is its weakness: there is no punishment for missing a target, and all the national targets added together are not enough to meet the goal.
同样的设计也是它的弱点：未达标不受惩罚，所有国家目标加在一起也不足以实现总目标。
This is a collective action problem.
这是集体行动困境。
Cutting emissions costs the state that cuts, but the benefit is shared by everyone.
减排的成本由减排国承担，好处却由所有人分享。
So each state has a reason to wait for others to pay, too little is cut, and the problem grows.
所以每个国家都有理由等别人买单，减排太少，问题越来越大。
The World Health Organization advises, sets standards and coordinates, but cannot force states to act.
世界卫生组织提供建议、制定标准、进行协调，但无法强迫国家行动。
In 2020 states closed borders and competed for supplies and vaccines.
2020 年各国关闭边境，争抢物资和疫苗。
COVAX shared nearly two billion doses with poorer countries, but they arrived much later.
COVAX 向较贫穷国家分享了近二十亿剂疫苗，但到得晚得多。
The case shows the limits of sovereignty and of IGOs without enforcement.
这个案例显示了主权的局限，也显示了缺乏强制力的政府间组织的局限。
The 1951 Refugee Convention defines a refugee as someone who has fled a well-founded fear of persecution, and says they must not be sent back to danger.
1951 年《难民公约》把难民定义为有充分理由害怕遭受迫害而离开本国的人，并规定不得把他们遣返到危险之中。
People leaving because of poverty or climate change are not covered.
因贫困或气候变化离开的人不在此列。
By 2024 more than one hundred and twenty million people had been forced from their homes.
到 2024 年，被迫离开家园的人已超过一亿二千万。
Artificial intelligence is developed mainly by a few large companies in a few countries, but it affects jobs, elections and security everywhere.
人工智能主要由少数几个国家的少数大公司开发，却影响着各地的就业、选举和安全。
The European Union's AI Act of 2024 is the first broad law; others prefer voluntary rules.
欧盟 2024 年的《人工智能法》是第一部全面的法律；其他国家更倾向自愿规则。
Who has power over a technology that crosses borders instantly?
谁能掌控一项瞬间跨越国界的技术？
Paper 3 often asks how challenges connect, so use a chain.
试卷三常问各项挑战如何相连，所以要用链条。
Floods and droughts make crops fail and people leave rural areas: poverty and borders.
洪水和干旱使庄稼歉收，人们离开农村：贫困和边界。
That puts pressure on cities and neighbouring states: security and identity.
这又给城市和邻国带来压力：安全和身份认同。
A pandemic closes schools and businesses, which hits poverty and equality.
疫情使学校和企业关闭，冲击贫困和平等问题。
Then trust in government can fall: a challenge to security and legitimacy.
随后民众对政府的信任可能下降：安全和合法性受到挑战。
A sample question: examine the links between multiple challenges, using two cases.
一道样题：结合两个案例，考察多项挑战之间的联系。
Thesis: the challenges are linked mainly through poverty and equality.
论点：各项挑战主要通过贫困和平等相连。
Case one, the Pakistan floods: environment led to disease, then lost crops and homes, then a question of equality, which led to the loss and damage fund agreed at COP27 in 2022.
案例一，巴基斯坦洪灾：环境引发疾病，再导致庄稼和房屋损失，再引出平等问题，促成了 2022 年 COP27 达成的“损失与损害”基金。
Case two, COVID-19: health led to lost jobs and school time, then to late vaccines for poorer countries.
案例二，新冠疫情：健康问题导致失业和学业中断，再导致较贫穷国家疫苗迟到。
Counter-argument: some links reduce challenges; technology spread information and vaccines quickly.
反方观点：有些联系会减轻挑战，技术使信息和疫苗迅速传播。
Judgement: the links are strongest where governance is weakest, because institutions handle one challenge at a time, while the problems arrive together.
判断：治理最薄弱的地方联系最强，因为机构一次只处理一项挑战，而问题却一起到来。
To finish: know the eight challenges; use the five steps; know the climate agreements and the collective action problem; the limits of the WHO, the Refugee Convention and AI rules; and build chains of links, judged by how strong governance is.
总结：掌握八项挑战；运用五个步骤；了解气候协定和集体行动困境；世卫组织、难民公约和人工智能规则的局限；并构建联系链条，用治理的强弱来判断。