综合案例：一页纸上的全案
引入| English | 释义 | 拼音 |
|---|---|---|
| case analysis/keɪs əˈnæləsɪs/ | 案例分析 | àn lì fēn xī |
One page, one argument
- Twelve courses built one bakery. The integrated case pulls the file together - and the test is whether one page can carry it.
- The spine: forces 16/25 - position premium, one sustained resource - fit six activities, equilibrium 22/14 - growth 11.6/9.6/8.5/7.0, cafe +152.2, walk-away 532.2 - execution 73.6 with a 4-hour gap - uncertainty EV 25.5, staged 11.6.
The case discipline
- Case analysis 案例分析: situation, frameworks chosen and scored, options numbered, decision, risks and review. Evidence for every claim; a number for every argument.
- Framework tourism is the failure mode: five models, no decision.
Where does this line belong?
Route each memo line to the box of the logic map it comes from.
The industry score out of 25?
难度 2/5 · 今日首次完成可获 140 金币及少量额外奖励
4 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 3 = 16.
The cafe walk-away price, in thousands?
难度 2/5 · 今日首次完成可获 140 金币及少量额外奖励
300 + 232.2 = 532.2.
Match each box to its headline number.
难度 2/5 · 今日首次完成可获 140 金币及少量额外奖励
Uncertainty closes the spine at EV 25.5, staged 11.6.
The forty-word memo
- We hold the premium position and deepen it (penetration EV 11.6): the second stage, the pooled supply, the fermentation log.
- We buy the cafe only at or below 532.2k with the supervisor as manager, piloted first (staged 11.6). We license abroad (CAGE 12). We do not ship buns; we do not launch the value line.
Repeat purchase target by the festival, in %?
难度 2/5 · 今日首次完成可获 140 金币及少量额外奖励
From 34%, owned by the head baker.
The memo rejects the value line because:
难度 1/5 · 今日首次完成可获 100 金币及少量额外奖励
One subtraction and one VRIO verdict.
Three case slips
- Numbers without owners, owners without dates.
- The retrospective rewrite. The case is written before the festival, not after.
- A memo that cannot say what would prove it wrong. That is a belief.
The memo’s falsification triggers include:
难度 1/5 · 今日首次完成可获 100 金币及少量额外奖励
A strategy that cannot say what would prove it wrong is a belief.
A case that runs five models and reaches no decision still counts as analysis.
难度 1/5 · 今日首次完成可获 100 金币及少量额外奖励
Framework tourism: five models, no decision - it never started.
The case is written before the festival, not after.
难度 1/5 · 今日首次完成可获 100 金币及少量额外奖励
Prediction with review triggers - not the retrospective rewrite.
Recap
- One page, every number traceable to a unit.
- The memo: forty words, three review triggers (repeat 34-45; gap-0; pre-orders -20% by week 4).
- Analysis ends in a decision or it never started.