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Pearson Edexcel · International A-Level · Economics Chủ đề 4 5:00 Giọng đọc tiếng Anh · phụ đề tiếng Anh + 中文 được ghi trực tiếp
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Governments pursue six objectives, and they conflict.
政府追求六个目标，而它们相互冲突。
Supply-side policies raise capacity.
供给侧政策提高产能。
Demand-side policies manage spending, through the budget and the central bank.
需求侧政策通过预算和中央银行管理支出。
Every answer weighs the trade-off.
每个答案都要权衡取舍。
Six objectives, each with a measure: growth, by real GDP; low and stable inflation, by the CPI; low unemployment, by the ILO rate; equilibrium on the current account; a balanced government budget; and greater income equality.
六个目标，各有衡量指标：增长看实际 GDP；低而稳定的通胀看 CPI；低失业看国际劳工组织失业率；经常账户平衡；政府预算平衡；以及更大的收入平等。
The short-run Phillips curve trades inflation against unemployment.
短期菲利普斯曲线体现通胀与失业之间的取舍。
The points trace inflation falling as unemployment rises.
这些点显示，失业上升时通胀下降。
Cutting inflation from 8% to 3% costs unemployment rising from 4% to 8% in the short run.
把通胀从百分之 8 降到 3，短期内要付出失业从百分之 4 升到 8 的代价。
Growth against the environment: faster output raises emissions, as Delhi's smog showed with growth above 7%.
增长与环境：产出加快会增加排放，德里在增长超过百分之 7 时出现的雾霾就是例子。
Inflation against the current account: reflation sucks in imports and hurts competitiveness.
通胀与经常账户：经济扩张会吸入进口并削弱竞争力。
Growth against equality: skilled sectors can pull ahead.
增长与平等：技术部门可能把差距拉大。
A successful supply-side policy shifts LRAS from 85 to 105.
成功的供给侧政策使长期总供给从 85 移到 105。
Moving along AD, the price level falls from 47.5 to 37.5 while output rises: growth without inflation.
沿着总需求曲线，价格水平从 47.5 降到 37.5，同时产出上升：没有通胀的增长。
Free-market policies: deregulation lowers costs and eases entry; privatisation adds profit discipline; tax cuts raise incentives to work and invest; welfare reform encourages people to accept work; and cutting bureaucracy lowers firms' costs.
自由市场型政策：放松管制降低成本、便于进入；私有化带来利润约束；减税提高工作和投资的激励；福利改革鼓励人们接受工作；削减官僚程序降低企业成本。
Interventionist policies: education and training make labour more productive; investment incentives use tax breaks and subsidies; infrastructure lowers firms' costs; finance for start-ups; and regional policy spreads activity to lagging regions.
干预型政策：教育和培训提高劳动生产率；投资激励使用税收优惠和补贴；基础设施降低企业成本；为初创企业提供融资；区域政策把经济活动扩展到落后地区。
Free-market policies are cheap and quick to announce, but their incentive effects are uncertain and they may worsen equality.
自由市场型政策成本低、宣布快，但激励效果不确定，还可能加剧不平等。
Interventionist policies fix real capacity constraints, but they are slow, costly and subject to government failure.
干预型政策解决真实的产能约束，但速度慢、成本高，并可能出现政府失灵。
Reflationary policy raises AD: higher government spending, lower taxes, lower interest rates, quantitative easing.
扩张性政策提高总需求：增加政府支出、减税、降息、量化宽松。
Deflationary policy cuts AD: the reverse.
紧缩性政策减少总需求：方向相反。
Government spending rises by 10, and the multiplier is 2, so income rises by 20.
政府支出增加 10，乘数为 2，所以收入增加 20。
With spare capacity that is real output.
有闲置产能时，这是实际产出的增加。
Against a vertical LRAS, it mainly raises the price level.
面对垂直的长期总供给曲线，它主要抬高价格水平。
In quantitative easing, the central bank buys government or corporate bonds.
在量化宽松中，中央银行购买政府或公司债券。
That improves the availability of loans, stimulating consumption and investment, and boosting AD and the price level.
这使贷款更容易获得，刺激消费和投资，推高总需求和价格水平。
The central bank implements monetary policy, setting the base rate and conducting QE.
中央银行执行货币政策，设定基准利率并实施量化宽松。
It pursues an inflation target.
它追求通胀目标。
It is banker to the government.
它是政府的银行。
And it is lender of last resort, stopping solvent banks failing in a panic.
它也是最后贷款人，防止有偿付能力的银行在恐慌中倒闭。
Monetary policy is quick, technical and insulated from politics, but works through indirect channels with long lags.
货币政策快速、技术性强，并且不受政治干扰，但通过间接渠道起作用，时滞很长。
Fiscal policy targets demand and distribution directly, but is slow to legislate, crowds out private spending and enlarges the budget deficit.
财政政策直接作用于需求和分配，但立法慢，会挤出私人支出，并扩大预算赤字。
The ECB's deposit rate rose from minus 0.5% in July 2022 to 4.0% by September 2023.
欧洲央行的存款利率从 2022 年 7 月的负百分之 0.5 升到 2023 年 9 月的百分之 4.0。
The change is 4.0 minus minus 0.5: 4.5 percentage points, the fastest rise in its history.
变化为 4.0 减负 0.5，即 4.5 个百分点，是其历史上最快的加息。
The 2022 shock was cost-push.
2022 年的冲击是成本推动型的。
When gas prices fell, lower costs shift SRAS to the right: that lowers the price level while raising output.
天然气价格下降后，成本降低使短期总供给右移：价格水平下降，同时产出上升。
So inflation fell without the usual rise in unemployment, and firms also kept scarce workers.
所以通胀下降，却没有出现通常的失业上升，企业也留住了稀缺的工人。
For rates: the rise was large and fast, and a credible central bank anchored expectations, stopping second-round effects on wages.
支持利率：加息幅度大、速度快，可信的中央银行稳住了预期，阻止了对工资的二轮效应。
Against: the cause was cost-push and faded as gas fell, and the lags were too long for full effect by 2023.
反对：通胀源于成本推动，随着天然气价格下跌而消退；时滞太长，到 2023 年还未完全见效。
Judgement: energy explains most of the fall; rates kept it from persisting.
判断：能源价格解释了大部分下降；利率使通胀没有持续下去。
Check yourself.
自我检测。
On the Phillips curve, cutting inflation from 8 to 3 percent raises unemployment from 4 to 8.
在菲利普斯曲线上，把通胀从百分之 8 降到 3，失业从 4 升到 8。
LRAS from 85 to 105 cuts the price level from 47.5 to 37.5.
长期总供给从 85 移到 105，价格水平从 47.5 降到 37.5。
Spending up 10 with a multiplier of 2 adds 20.
支出增加 10、乘数为 2，收入增加 20。
Minus 0.5 to 4.0 percent is 4.5 percentage points.
从负百分之 0.5 到百分之 4.0 是 4.5 个百分点。
And the lender of last resort is the central bank.
最后贷款人是中央银行。