Clima e recursos
International Baccalaureate · IB Diploma · Geography · SL Tópico 2 8:51 Narração em inglês · Legendas em inglês + 中文 gravadas
Capítulos
Transcrição
In July 2021, a storm dropped two hundred and one point nine millimetres of rain on Zhengzhou in one hour.
2021 年 7 月，一场暴雨在一小时内给郑州带来 201.9 毫米降水。
Streets and a subway line flooded, and almost four hundred people died across Henan.
街道和一条地铁线被淹，河南全省近四百人死亡。
One storm cannot prove climate change, but warmer air holds more water, so very heavy rain is becoming more common.
一场暴雨不能证明气候变化，但更暖的空气能容纳更多水汽，所以极端强降雨正变得更常见。
The Earth gets energy from the Sun and loses energy as heat.
地球从太阳获得能量，又以热的形式散失能量。
If the two are equal, the temperature stays the same.
两者相等时，平均温度不变。
Of every hundred units of sunlight, about thirty are reflected back to space. About twenty warm the air, and fifty warm the ground.
每一百单位阳光中，约三十单位被反射回太空，约二十单位使大气变暖，五十单位使地面变暖。
The warm ground gives off heat.
温暖的地面向外散发热量。
Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour absorb much of this heat and send part of it back down.
二氧化碳、甲烷和水汽等温室气体吸收大部分热量，并把一部分送回地面。
That is the greenhouse effect.
这就是温室效应。
Without it, the Earth's average temperature would be about minus eighteen degrees instead of fifteen.
没有它，地球平均气温约为零下十八度，而不是十五度。
People add greenhouse gases by burning coal, oil and gas, by cutting forests, and from farming: cattle and rice fields release methane.
人类通过燃烧煤、石油和天然气、砍伐森林以及农业活动增加温室气体：牛和稻田会释放甲烷。
This makes the greenhouse effect stronger: the enhanced greenhouse effect.
这让温室效应变得更强，即增强的温室效应。
Carbon dioxide has been measured at Mauna Loa since 1958.
自 1958 年起，人们在冒纳罗亚测量二氧化碳。
Air bubbles in old ice show that before industry, carbon dioxide stayed between about one hundred and eighty and three hundred parts per million, around two hundred and eighty.
古冰中的气泡显示，工业化之前二氧化碳一直在约 180 至 300 ppm 之间，约为 280。
In 1960 the level was three hundred and seventeen. By 2024 it was four hundred and twenty-five.
1960 年为 317，到 2024 年达到 425。
Calculate the percentage increase.
计算增长百分比。
From 1960: four twenty-five minus three seventeen, over three seventeen, times a hundred, is about thirty-four per cent.
从 1960 年算起：(425 − 317) ÷ 317 × 100，约 34%。
From the pre-industrial level of two eighty, the increase is about fifty-two per cent.
从工业化前的 280 算起，增长约 52%。
Always say which baseline you used.
一定要说明你用的基准。
The world was about one point one degrees warmer in the decade to 2020 than in the late nineteenth century, and 2024 was the first calendar year more than one point five degrees above that level.
2011 至 2020 年的全球气温比十九世纪后期高约 1.1 度，2024 年是第一个比该水平高出 1.5 度以上的日历年。
Global sea level rose by about twenty centimetres from 1901 to 2018, because water expands as it warms and ice melts.
1901 至 2018 年，全球海平面上升约 20 厘米，因为水受热膨胀、冰川融化。
The climate also changes for natural reasons: small changes in the Earth's orbit over tens of thousands of years, changes in the Sun's output, and large volcanic eruptions, which cool the Earth for a year or two.
气候也会因自然原因而变化：地球轨道在数万年间的微小变化、太阳辐射的变化，以及让地球降温一两年的大型火山喷发。
None of these can explain the fast warming since 1950.
这些都无法解释 1950 年以来的快速变暖。
A feedback loop makes a change bigger or smaller.
反馈回路会放大或减弱变化。
In a positive feedback, warming melts ice. The dark sea and land underneath absorb more sunlight than white ice, so warming increases, and more ice melts.
在正反馈中，变暖使冰融化；冰下深色的海洋和陆地比白色的冰吸收更多阳光，于是变暖加剧，更多冰融化。
Thawing permafrost releases methane, which adds more warming.
冻土融化释放甲烷，进一步加剧变暖。
Such loops may push the climate past a tipping point.
这样的回路可能把气候推过临界点。
Climate change affects the Earth system: hotter heatwaves, heavier rain, longer droughts, warmer and more acidic oceans, and rising seas.
气候变化影响整个地球系统：更热的热浪、更强的降雨、更长的干旱、更暖更酸的海洋、上升的海平面。
It affects people through health, such as heat stress and the spread of dengue; through food, with lower yields in hot regions; and through migration.
它通过健康（如热应激和登革热扩散）、粮食（炎热地区减产）和迁移影响人类。
Vulnerability depends on three things.
脆弱性取决于三点。
Exposure: how much of the hazard reaches a place, like Tuvalu, mostly less than three metres above the sea.
暴露度：灾害对某地的影响程度，如图瓦卢大部分陆地海拔不到三米。
Sensitivity: how much damage it does, as for farmers who depend on rain.
敏感性：灾害造成的损害程度，如依赖降雨的农民。
And capacity: the money, knowledge and government to respond, like the Netherlands' sea defences.
应对能力：用于应对的资金、知识和政府，如荷兰的海防工程。
Resilience is the ability to cope and recover.
恢复力是应对和恢复的能力。
In 1970 the Bhola cyclone killed about three hundred thousand to five hundred thousand people in what is now Bangladesh.
1970 年博拉气旋在今孟加拉国造成约三十万至五十万人死亡。
Since then Bangladesh has built thousands of shelters and set up warnings.
此后孟加拉国修建了数千座避难所，建立了预警系统。
When Cyclone Amphan hit in 2020, a few dozen people died.
2020 年超强气旋“安攀”来袭时，死亡人数只有几十人。
There are two kinds of response.
应对有两类。
Mitigation reduces the cause: fewer greenhouse gases, for example from solar and wind power, or more carbon taken out of the air.
减缓针对原因：减少温室气体，如发展太阳能和风能，或从空气中移除更多碳。
Adaptation reduces the damage: sea walls, heat-resistant crops, sponge cities that soak up rain, and early warnings.
适应减少损害：海堤、耐热作物、能吸收雨水的海绵城市，以及预警系统。
Responses happen at every scale.
应对发生在各个尺度。
Globally, the Paris Agreement aims to keep warming well below two degrees, but pledges are voluntary.
全球层面，《巴黎协定》力求把升温控制在远低于两度，但承诺是自愿的。
Nationally, China plans to peak emissions before 2030 and has carbon trading since 2021.
国家层面，中国计划在2030 年前碳达峰，并自 2021 年起实行碳交易。
In cities, sponge-city pilots help with floods.
城市层面，海绵城市试点有助于防洪。
And civil society, such as the school strikes, raised attention.
公民社会，如学生罢课运动，提高了关注度。
To evaluate a strategy, use four moves.
评价一项策略用四步。
Name it and its scale: the Paris Agreement, global.
说出名称和尺度：《巴黎协定》，全球。
Say how it works: countries pledge cuts and review them every five years.
说明作用机制：各国承诺减排，每五年审查一次。
Give a number: well below two degrees.
给出数字：远低于两度。
Then a limit: pledges are voluntary, and even if all are met, warming is expected to pass two degrees.
再给出局限：承诺是自愿的，即使全部兑现，升温预计仍会超过两度。
Some scientists discuss geoengineering, such as spraying particles into the upper air to reflect sunlight.
一些科学家讨论地球工程，例如向高空喷洒颗粒以反射阳光。
It might cool the Earth fast. But it does not stop carbon dioxide making the oceans more acidic, and it could change rainfall in other countries.
它可能迅速降温，但无法阻止二氧化碳使海洋酸化，还可能改变其他国家的降雨。
The world population passed eight billion in 2022, and consumption grows faster, as more people join the middle class.
2022 年世界人口超过八十亿，而消费增长得更快，因为更多人进入中产阶级。
The ecological footprint is the land and sea needed to supply what a person uses.
生态足迹是满足一个人消费所需的陆地和海洋面积。
The world average is about two point six global hectares, but the Earth can supply only about one point six.
世界平均约 2.6 全球公顷，但地球只能提供约 1.6。
So humanity uses about one point six Earths.
所以人类大约在用 1.6 个地球。
Renewable resources such as fish, forests, wind and sunlight can be used again, if we use them no faster than they renew.
鱼类、森林、风能和太阳能等可再生资源可以反复利用，前提是使用速度不超过再生速度。
Non-renewable resources such as coal, oil and metals exist in a fixed amount.
煤、石油和金属等不可再生资源的总量是固定的。
Water security means enough safe water at a fair price.
水安全指以合理价格获得足够的安全用水。
Farming takes about seventy per cent of the fresh water people withdraw.
农业约占人类取用淡水的 70%。
Insecurity can be physical, too little water, as in the Middle East, or economic: the water exists, but people cannot afford the pipes and pumps.
水不安全可能是物理性的，即水太少，如中东；也可能是经济性的：水是有的，但人们负担不起管道和水泵。
Food security has four pillars.
粮食安全有四大支柱。
Availability: enough food is produced or imported.
可获得性：生产或进口了足够的粮食。
Access: people can afford and reach it.
可及性：人们买得起、拿得到。
Utilisation: the food is safe and nutritious.
利用：食物安全且有营养。
And stability: all three last through bad years.
稳定性：三者在荒年也能持续。
A famine can happen even when a country has enough food, if the poor cannot afford it.
即使一个国家粮食充足，如果穷人买不起，仍可能发生饥荒。
Energy security means a reliable supply of energy at an affordable price.
能源安全指以可负担的价格获得可靠的能源供应。
China imports about seventy per cent of the crude oil it uses, much of it by sea.
中国约 70% 的原油依赖进口，其中大部分经海路运输。
That is one reason it invests heavily in solar, wind, nuclear power and electric cars.
这是中国大力投资太阳能、风能、核电和电动汽车的原因之一。
The three resources depend on each other. Farms need water for irrigation. Energy pumps water and makes fertiliser. Power stations need water for cooling. And food crops can become biofuels: growing maize for fuel saves oil, but uses farmland and water that could grow food.
这三种资源相互依存。 农业需要水来灌溉；能源用于抽水和生产化肥；发电站需要水来冷却；粮食作物还能变成生物燃料：种玉米做燃料能节省石油，却占用了本可种粮的耕地和水。
Will the Earth run out of resources?
地球会耗尽资源吗？
In 1798 Thomas Malthus argued that population grows faster than food.
1798 年，马尔萨斯认为人口增长快于粮食增长。
Food rises in a straight line while population curves upward, until they cross, and famine, disease and war stop growth.
粮食直线增长，人口曲线上升，直到两者相交，饥荒、疾病和战争就会阻止人口增长。
In 1965 Ester Boserup argued the opposite: when population grows, people find new ways to grow more food, so food supply steps up and stays ahead.
1965 年，博塞鲁普提出相反观点：人口增长时，人们会想出新办法生产更多粮食，所以粮食供给阶梯式上升，始终领先。
The Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s raised grain production faster than population.
1960 至 70 年代的绿色革命使粮食产量增长快于人口。
But it used a lot of water and fertiliser, so a limit may come from the environment instead.
但它消耗大量水和化肥，所以极限可能来自环境。
Resource stewardship means using resources carefully so that they last.
资源管护就是谨慎使用资源，使其可以持续。
The UN's Sustainable Development Goals include clean water, clean energy and responsible consumption.
联合国可持续发展目标包括清洁水、清洁能源和负责任的消费。
A circular economy keeps materials in use by repairing, reusing and recycling, instead of take, make, throw away.
循环经济通过修理、再利用和回收让材料持续流通，而不是“开采、制造、丢弃”。
To finish: the energy balance and the enhanced greenhouse effect; the carbon dioxide numbers and both percentages; feedback loops, vulnerability and Bangladesh; mitigation and adaptation at four scales; and the footprint, resource security, Malthus and Boserup.
总结：能量平衡与增强的温室效应；二氧化碳数据与两个百分比；反馈回路、脆弱性与孟加拉国案例；四个尺度上的减缓与适应；以及生态足迹、资源安全、马尔萨斯与博塞鲁普。