Reading the economic cycle
導入済み| English | 意味 |
|---|---|
| recession/rɪˈseʃn/ | 景気後退 |
| recovery/rɪˈkʌvəri/ | 景気回復 |
A decision you can investigate
- A furniture factory first runs overtime, then receives fewer orders, then lays off workers. Later it recruits again.
- The economy can move through a cycle rather than grow smoothly.
Build the explanation
- A boom has high activity; a downturn means activity is weakening. A recession 经济衰退 is a significant period of falling economic activity; two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP is a common practical indicator. Recovery 经济复苏 is renewed growth after the low point.
- Falling orders can reduce labour demand and raise cyclical unemployment. Recovery can reverse this. Demand-driven inflationary pressure often rises near capacity in a boom and weakens in a downturn.
Work through the evidence
- A fictional quarterly real-output index moves 100, 104, 102, 99, 101. Growth is 4%, then about −1.92%, then about −2.94%, then about 2.02%.
- The two falls form a recession under the common two-quarter indicator; 99 to 101 is recovery. Output is still below the earlier 104 peak. An economy can therefore recover while unemployment remains above its boom level.
Which interval has falling real output?
難易度 1/5 · 100 コイン + 今日初回完了時に小ボーナス付与
The index decreases by 2 in the second interval.
Growth slows from 4% to 2%. What follows?
難易度 1/5 · 100 コイン + 今日初回完了時に小ボーナス付与
Both rates are positive.
A recovery returns output to its previous peak in one period.
難易度 1/5 · 100 コイン + 今日初回完了時に小ボーナス付与
A rise from the trough may leave output below the previous peak.
Test the limits
- A slowing positive growth rate is not the same as falling output. Recovery need not immediately restore all lost jobs.
- Inflation can remain high during a downturn if production costs rise. The diagram describes real output, not a guaranteed path for every price or worker.
Why may unemployment rise in a downturn?
難易度 1/5 · 100 コイン + 今日初回完了時に小ボーナス付与
Reduced production demand can reduce hiring and employment.
Apply and explain your answer
- Why is the final period recovery even though output remains below the old peak?
- Output is increasing from the low point; recovery describes its direction, not full restoration.
Match the terms to their meanings.
難易度 2/5 · 140 コイン + 今日初回完了時に小ボーナス付与
Each term describes a specific mechanism in this lesson.
Use the terms precisely
- recession: A significant period of declining economic activity.
- recovery: Renewed growth in activity after a downturn or low point.
A fictional quarterly real-output index moves 100, 104, 102, 99, 101. Growth is 4%, then about −1.92%, then about −2.94%, then about 2.02%. The two falls form a recession under the common two-quarter indicator; 99 to 101 is recovery. Output is still below the earlier 104 peak. An economy can therefore recover while unemployment remains above its boom level.
A slowing positive growth rate is not the same as falling output. Recovery need not immediately restore all lost jobs. Inflation can remain high during a downturn if production costs rise. The diagram describes real output, not a guaranteed path for every price or worker.
A boom has high activity; a downturn means activity is weakening. A recession is a significant period of falling economic activity; two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP is a common practical indicator. Recovery is renewed growth after the low point.
Write from a peak of 120
- A quarterly real-output index moves 100, 120, 108, 96 and then 108.
- Use the two-quarter test. Compare the last index with the peak.
The index moves 100, 120, 108, 96 and 108. Do the two falls meet the two-quarter recession test, and has output returned to its peak?
The two-quarter test uses two falls in a row. One later rise can be a recovery while the peak is still ahead.
Which statement fits the index 100, 120, 108, 96, 108?
難易度 1/5 · 100 コイン + 今日初回完了時に小ボーナス付与
The second and third changes are both falls. The final 108 is 12 below 120.