Ekonomi global
International Baccalaureate · IB Diploma · Economics · HL Topik 6 8:43 Narasi bahasa Inggris · Subtitle bahasa Inggris + 中文 disematkan langsung
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In 1980 China opened its first special economic zone in Shenzhen, then a small town.
1980 年中国在深圳设立第一个经济特区，当时那里只是一个小镇。
Today it is a city of more than seventeen million, and China is the world's largest exporter of goods.
如今深圳人口超过一千七百万，中国是世界最大的货物出口国。
This lesson asks how trade causes growth, who loses from it, and why some countries still struggle to develop.
本课探讨贸易如何带来增长、谁因此受损，以及为什么有些国家仍难以发展。
Trade gives consumers lower prices and more choice.
贸易让消费者得到更低的价格和更多选择。
Firms sell to bigger markets and gain economies of scale.
企业面向更大的市场，获得规模经济。
Competition from abroad pushes local firms to be more efficient, and trade spreads new technology and ideas.
来自国外的竞争促使本地企业提高效率，贸易还传播新技术和新思想。
A country has an absolute advantage in a good if it makes more of it with the same resources.
如果一个国家用同样的资源能生产更多某种产品，它就具有绝对优势。
It has a comparative advantage if it makes the good at a lower opportunity cost.
如果它生产该产品的机会成本更低，它就具有比较优势。
Trade rests on comparative advantage: even a country better at everything gains by specialising.
贸易的基础是比较优势：即使一个国家样样都更强，专业化生产也能获益。
In a day, a worker in A makes four wheat or two cloth; in B, one of each.
A 国一名工人一天能生产 4 单位小麦或 2 单位布；B 国各 1 单位。
A is better at both.
A 两样都更强。
But a cloth costs A two wheat and B only one, so B has the comparative advantage in cloth, and A in wheat.
但一单位布在 A 国要牺牲 2 单位小麦，在 B 国只要 1 单位，所以 B 在布上有比较优势，A 在小麦上有比较优势。
Any price between one and two wheat per cloth helps both.
每单位布换 1 到 2 单位小麦之间的任何价格对双方都有利。
Give each country a hundred workers.
两国各有 100 名工人。
A makes four hundred wheat, B a hundred cloth, and they trade a hundred and twenty wheat for eighty cloth.
A 生产 400 单位小麦，B 生产 100 单位布，双方用 120 单位小麦交换 80 单位布。
A ends with two hundred and eighty wheat and eighty cloth, beyond its own curve.
A 最后拥有280 单位小麦和 80 单位布，超出了自己的生产可能性曲线。
B ends with a hundred and twenty wheat and twenty cloth, beyond its curve too.
B 拥有 120 单位小麦和 20 单位布，也超出了自己的曲线。
The theory assumes no transport costs and workers who move easily between industries; in reality, workers in a closing factory may not find new jobs quickly.
这一理论假设没有运输成本，工人能轻松转换行业；现实中，关闭工厂的工人未必能很快找到新工作。
The World Trade Organization sets the rules, runs talks to lower barriers and settles disputes, though critics say it favours rich countries.
世界贸易组织制定规则、组织降低壁垒的谈判并解决争端，但批评者认为它偏向富国。
Governments protect domestic producers with tariffs, which are taxes on imports; quotas, which limit the quantity; production subsidies and export subsidies paid to their own firms; and administrative barriers such as slow customs checks.
政府用以下手段保护本国生产者：关税，即对进口征税；配额，限制进口数量；给本国企业的生产补贴和出口补贴；以及缓慢的海关检查等行政壁垒。
At the world price of twelve, firms here make sixty-eight and consumers buy a hundred and sixteen, so imports are forty-eight.
在世界价格 12 时，本国企业生产 68，消费者购买 116，进口 48。
A tariff of four raises the price to sixteen.
4 的关税把价格提高到 16。
Firms make eighty-four, consumers buy a hundred and eight, and imports halve to twenty-four.
企业生产 84，消费者购买 108，进口减半到 24。
The government collects the tariff on them, and two triangles of waste appear.
政府对这些进口征收关税，同时出现两块浪费的三角形。
The government collects four on each of twenty-four imports: ninety-six.
政府对 24 单位进口每单位征 4：96。
Domestic firms now make sixteen units that foreign firms made more cheaply, a loss of thirty-two.
本国企业多生产了 16 单位原本外国企业能更便宜生产的产品，损失 32。
Consumers give up eight units, a loss of sixteen.
消费者少买了 8 单位，损失 16。
Society loses forty-eight in all.
社会总共损失 48。
Consumers lose, because they pay more and buy less.
消费者受损：价格更高、买得更少。
Domestic producers gain.
本国生产者获益。
The government gains revenue.
政府获得收入。
Foreign producers lose sales, and society loses the waste.
外国生产者失去销量，社会承担浪费。
A quota has the same price effect but no revenue; a production subsidy keeps the price low, but the government pays for it.
配额对价格的影响相同但没有收入；生产补贴让价格保持低位，但由政府买单。
Supporters argue for protecting infant industries, jobs, and national security, and for stopping dumping below cost.
支持者主张保护幼稚产业、就业和国家安全，并制止低于成本的倾销。
Opponents point to higher prices, retaliation and trade wars, and protected firms that never become efficient.
反对者指出价格上升、报复和贸易战，以及受保护企业永远不会变得高效。
Most economists accept only a few of these arguments.
大多数经济学家只接受其中少数几条理由。
Trading blocs go further in stages.
贸易集团分阶段深化。
A free trade area, such as RCEP, removes barriers between members.
自由贸易区，比如 RCEP，取消成员之间的壁垒。
A customs union adds a common external tariff.
关税同盟再加上共同对外关税。
A common market adds free movement of labour and capital, as in the EU.
共同市场再加上劳动力和资本自由流动，比如欧盟。
A monetary union adds one currency, like the euro.
货币联盟再加上统一货币，比如欧元。
Integration can create trade: a member buys from a cheaper partner instead of its own high-cost firms.
一体化可能创造贸易：成员从更便宜的伙伴那里购买，而不是向本国高成本企业购买。
It can also divert trade: a member buys from a dearer partner inside the bloc instead of a cheaper country outside.
也可能转移贸易：成员从集团内更贵的伙伴购买，而不是从集团外更便宜的国家购买。
And in the euro crisis, Greece could not devalue or cut its own rates.
欧元危机中，希腊无法贬值，也无法自行降息。
Under a floating rate, demand and supply set the price of a currency.
在浮动汇率下，供求决定货币的价格。
Foreigners buying Chinese exports demand yuan; Chinese people buying imports supply them.
购买中国出口商品的外国人需要人民币；购买进口商品的中国人供给人民币。
When demand for Chinese exports rises, demand for yuan shifts right and the yuan appreciates from fourteen to fifteen US cents.
当对中国出口的需求上升时，人民币需求右移，人民币从 14 美分升值到 15 美分。
A currency rises when demand for exports grows, or when higher interest rates attract hot money.
出口需求增加，或者较高的利率吸引热钱流入时，货币升值。
It falls when inflation is higher than in other countries.
通胀高于其他国家时，货币贬值。
Speculators and the central bank move it too.
投机者和中央银行也会影响汇率。
An appreciation makes exports dearer and imports cheaper; a depreciation helps exporters.
升值使出口更贵、进口更便宜；贬值有利于出口商。
A Chinese phone is priced at two thousand one hundred yuan.
一部中国手机定价 2100 元。
When a dollar buys seven yuan, it costs three hundred dollars in the US.
1 美元兑 7 元时，它在美国卖 300 美元。
If the yuan appreciates to six per dollar, the same phone costs three hundred and fifty.
如果人民币升值到 1 美元兑 6 元，同一部手机要 350 美元。
Under a fixed rate the central bank buys or sells to hold one value, like the Hong Kong dollar since 1983; a deliberate cut is a devaluation.
固定汇率下，央行通过买卖维持一个价值，比如 1983 年以来的港元；有意下调叫法定贬值。
A managed rate floats within a band, like the yuan.
有管理的汇率在一个区间内浮动，比如人民币。
Fixed rates give certainty but need large reserves; floating rates adjust but can swing.
固定汇率带来确定性，但需要大量储备；浮动汇率能自动调整，但可能大幅波动。
The balance of payments records all money transactions with the rest of the world.
国际收支记录与世界其他地区的所有资金往来。
The current account holds trade, income and transfers.
经常账户包括贸易、收入和转移支付。
The capital account is small.
资本账户规模很小。
The financial account holds investment.
金融账户包括投资。
They add to zero, so a current deficit is paid for by borrowing or selling assets.
三者相加为零，所以经常账户赤字要靠借款或出售资产来弥补。
A large, lasting deficit builds foreign debt.
长期的大额赤字会积累外债。
Expenditure-switching policies move spending from imports to home goods, through protection or a lower exchange rate.
支出转换政策通过保护或降低汇率，把支出从进口转向本国商品。
Expenditure-reducing policies cut total spending, which can cause unemployment.
支出削减政策压缩总支出，可能造成失业。
Supply-side policies make exports more competitive.
供给侧政策提高出口竞争力。
A depreciation helps the current account only if buyers respond enough: the export and import elasticities must add to more than one.
只有当买家反应足够大时，贬值才能改善经常账户：出口和进口需求弹性之和必须大于 1。
At first, contracts are signed and buyers are slow, so the country pays more for the same imports and the deficit gets worse.
起初合同已签、买家调整缓慢，国家为同样的进口付出更多，赤字恶化。
Later volumes adjust and the balance improves.
之后数量调整，收支改善。
The terms of trade compare export prices with import prices.
贸易条件比较出口价格和进口价格。
Export prices rise to a hundred and twenty-eight point nine and import prices to a hundred and seventeen point one, so the terms of trade are about a hundred and ten.
出口价格指数升到 128.9，进口价格指数升到 117.1，贸易条件约为 110。
Each export buys ten per cent more imports, unless the rise came from inflation that cuts sales.
每单位出口能多换 10% 的进口，除非这是由削弱销量的通胀造成的。
Development is broader than growth: less poverty, better health and education, more freedom and choice.
发展比增长更广：更少的贫困、更好的健康和教育、更多的自由与选择。
Sustainable development meets today's needs without harming future generations.
可持续发展在满足当代需要的同时不损害后代。
Poverty and environmental damage are linked: very poor people may have to cut forests to survive.
贫困与环境破坏相互关联：极度贫困的人可能不得不砍伐森林求生。
Single indicators, like income per head, show one side of development.
人均收入等单一指标只反映发展的一个方面。
The Human Development Index combines income, health and education.
人类发展指数综合了收入、健康和教育。
Adjusted indices add inequality and gender.
调整后的指数加入了不平等和性别。
A country whose HDI rank is far below its income rank may have oil wealth but poor public services.
人类发展指数排名远低于收入排名的国家，可能有石油财富，却公共服务薄弱。
People with low incomes cannot save, so there is little money for investment.
低收入的人无法储蓄，所以可用于投资的钱很少。
With little capital, productivity stays low, and so do incomes.
资本少，生产率就低，收入也一直很低。
Aid, foreign investment, microfinance, education and healthcare can each break a link.
援助、外国投资、小额信贷、教育和医疗都可以打破其中一环。
Barriers include high inequality, poor infrastructure and little access to credit; dependence on one export, like Zambia's copper; being landlocked, or exposed to tropical disease; and weak institutions, corruption, conflict and gender inequality.
障碍包括严重的不平等、基础设施薄弱和难以获得信贷；依赖单一出口，比如赞比亚的铜；身处内陆或受热带疾病困扰；以及制度薄弱、腐败、冲突和性别不平等。
China, South Korea and Singapore grew by promoting exports.
中国、韩国和新加坡靠出口导向发展起来。
Import substitution protected new industries but left firms inefficient.
进口替代保护了新兴产业，却让企业效率低下。
Foreign investment brings capital and skills, but profits leave.
外国投资带来资本和技能，但利润流出。
Aid helps health and schools but can create dependency.
援助有助于医疗和教育，却可能造成依赖。
Microfinance reaches people banks ignore, at high interest.
小额信贷惠及银行忽视的人群，但利率很高。
To finish: trade follows comparative advantage; a tariff raises the price, halves imports and wastes two triangles; blocs integrate in stages; currencies follow demand and supply; and development needs the right strategy for each barrier.
总结：贸易遵循比较优势；关税抬高价格、使进口减半，并造成两块浪费；贸易集团分阶段一体化；汇率由供求决定；发展需要针对每个障碍选择合适的策略。