Corporate and international strategy: bet by the arithmetic
Diperkenalkan| English | Makna |
|---|---|
| Ansoff matrix/ˈænsɒf ˈmeɪtrɪks/ | the growth grid: penetration, market, product, diversification - risk rising with each step out |
| synergy | value that exists only if two plus two beats five after the premium is paid |
| CAGE distance | cultural, administrative, geographic and economic distance between markets |
Growth is four different bets
- The Ansoff matrix 安索夫矩阵 separates them: penetration (festival second stage), market development (school contracts), product development (gluten-free), diversification (the cafe).
- Each with an expected value: 11.6k, 9.6k, 8.5k, 7.0k - and risk rising with each step out.
The acquisition is a number
- The cafe standalone is worth 300k; synergies 60k a year for five years at WACC 9.19%: annuity factor 3.8707, synergy 协同效应 PV 232.2k.
- Offer 380k - an 80k premium: value created $232.2 - 80 = +152.2$k. The walk-away number: $300 + 232.2 = 532.2$k.
Which Ansoff bet is this?
Route each growth idea to its quadrant.
Penetration EV: 0.6 x 18 + 0.4 x 2 = ?
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11.6k - the safest bet wins.
Diversification EV: 0.3 x 70 + 0.7 x (-20) = ?
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7.0k - the biggest tail, the worst EV.
Match each bet to its EV.
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The boring quadrant wins.
CAGE: distance is measurable
- The China export idea: cultural 3, administrative 4, geographic 3, economic 2 - CAGE distance CAGE距离 12 of 20: far.
- The answer is licensing: the recipe and the brand stay home; the admin distance belongs to the licensee.
Synergy 60k x 3.871 = ? (one decimal)
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232.2k at the 9.19% WACC.
Standalone 300 + synergy PV 232.2. The walk-away price?
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Above 532.2k the premium eats the synergy.
CAGE scores 3 + 4 + 3 + 2. The total and the form?
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Far distance: keep the recipe home, let the licensee carry the admin.
Three growth slips
- Reading Ansoff as four equal squares. Risk rises left to right and top to bottom.
- Valuing synergies gross and premiums net. Value = synergy PV minus premium.
- Calling licensing a defeat. At CAGE 12 of 20 it is the highest-EV international form.
At an offer of 550k the deal still creates +232.2k of value.
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232.2 - 250 = -17.8k: it destroys value above 532.2k.
A parent that adds management hours it does not have is subtracting.
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The parenting test: HQ must add more value than it costs - hours count as cost.
Recap
- EVs: penetration 11.6 / market 9.6 / product 8.5 / diversify 7.0.
- The cafe: 232.2 - premium; walk away at 532.2k.
- CAGE 12/20: license, don't ship.