דגימה, שגיאת סטייה וטענות סיבתיות
SAT נושא 17 3:31 קריאת קול באנגלית · תרגום אנגלי + סינית שרוף בתוך הסרטון
פרקים
תרגום טקסט
A margin of error is added and subtracted in percentage points. Estimate 63% with margin 4 points gives 59%–67%. It is an interval from a procedure, not a guarantee that each person's response is near 63%.
误差范围用百分点计算。
Random sampling supports population inference; random assignment addresses treatment comparisons.
随机抽样决定能推广到谁，随机分组支持因果比较。 大样本不能自动消除选择偏差。
Each task gives its own data. Do not copy the worked example’s numbers.
每题给出独立数据，不能直接照搬例题数字。
Pause here and attempt the task before revealing the reasoning.
请先暂停独立作答，再查看推理。
Use the full context on the preceding pages.
结合前面各页的完整材料。
The interval runs from 62 percent minus 4, which is 58 percent, to 62 percent plus 4, which is 66 percent, where the subtraction is in percentage points.
区间从百分之六十二减四，即百分之五十八，到百分之六十二加四，即百分之六十六，这里加减的是百分点。
The population is registered members in the sampling frame.
总体是抽样框中的注册会员。
Nonmembers were not sampled, so the estimate does not establish all residents' support.
非会员没有被抽到，所以这个估计不能说明全体居民的支持程度。
Pause here and attempt the task before revealing the reasoning.
请先暂停独立作答，再查看推理。
Use the full context on the preceding pages.
结合前面各页的完整材料。
Random assignment supports a causal comparison of the instruction versions for these participants under the tested conditions, subject to variation.
随机分配支持对这些参与者、在所测试条件下的两种说明版本进行因果比较，但存在随机变异。
Volunteer selection limits population generalisation.
参与者是自愿报名的，这限制了推广到总体。
It does not establish that every future user will finish faster.
它并不能证明今后每位用户都会更快完成。
Pause here and attempt the task before revealing the reasoning.
请先暂停独立作答，再查看推理。
Use the full context on the preceding pages.
结合前面各页的完整材料。
People choosing to respond can differ systematically from those who do not.
选择回应的人可能与不回应的人存在系统性差异。
A margin for sampling variability does not remove that bias.
用来表示抽样变异的误差范围并不能消除这种偏差。
Select randomly from the defined target population and follow up nonresponse; still report limitations.
应当从界定好的目标总体中随机抽样，并跟进未回应者；即便如此，仍要报告局限。
Return to the task and explain why the method fits.
回到题目解释方法为何适用。
Original practice does not predict an official score. Complete required live or recorded evidence separately.
原创练习不预测官方分数；现场或录音证据需另行完成。
Pause and test yourself. Cover the worked answer, rebuild the answer to the last example in your own words, and name one condition that would change it before you check.
暂停一下，自我检测：遮住示范答案，用自己的话重做最后一个例子的答案，并在核对之前说出一个会改变结论的条件。