流行病学与临床证据
GRE Subject Test · GRE 心理学 知识点 26 4:22 英语旁白 · 英中内嵌字幕
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A cumulative incidence proportion uses new cases among people initially at risk over a specified period.
累积发病率比例是指在特定时期内，初始处于风险中的人群里新发病例的比例。
An incidence rate uses person-time, while point prevalence counts existing cases at a specified time.
发病率使用人时作为分母，而时点患病率则统计特定时间点上现患病例的数量。
Do not interchange their denominators or units.
切勿混淆它们的分母或单位。
Design labels are guides, not an automatic quality ladder: a biased trial or weak meta-analysis can mislead.
研究设计标签仅起参考作用，并非自动的质量等级阶梯：有偏倚的试验或薄弱的荟萃分析仍可能误导结论。
Relative risk reduction needs its baseline; absolute change and follow-up duration are necessary for interpretation.
相对风险降低需以基线数据为前提；绝对变化量和随访时长对于正确解读结果不可或缺。
Incidence counts NEW cases in a period (number of new diagnoses in a year); prevalence counts ALL existing cases at a time.
发病率统计某段时间内的新发病例数，即一年内的新诊断人数。 患病率统计某一时间点的所有现存病例数。
Chronic conditions can have low incidence and high prevalence; short acute outbreaks show the reverse.
慢性疾病可能具有低发病率和患病率高；短期急性暴发则相反。
A count of new cases in the United States in the past year is an incidence figure.
过去一年美国的新发病例计数是一个发病率数据。
Rates need denominators: incidence rate is new cases divided by person-time at risk; prevalence is existing cases divided by the population.
率需要分母：发病率是新发病例数除以风险人时；患病率是现存病例数除以人口总数。
Comparing raw counts across populations of different sizes misleads; compare rates.
在不同规模的人群之间比较原始计数会产生误导，应比较率。
Case reports, case-control studies, cohorts, randomized trials and meta-analyses answer different questions.
病例报告、病例对照研究、队列研究、随机试验和荟萃分析回答不同的问题。
Random allocation can reduce baseline confounding under appropriate implementation; observational designs need explicit confounder analysis.
在适当实施下，随机分配可以减少基线混杂。 观察性设计需要明确的混杂因素分析。
Quality, bias, relevance and uncertainty must be evaluated within each design.
每种设计内部都必须评估质量、偏倚、相关性和不确定性。
A meta-analysis cannot automatically repair weak constituent studies.
荟萃分析无法自动修复构成其研究的薄弱部分。
Screening and risk run on base rates: with low prevalence, even an accurate test yields mostly false positives among positives.
筛查和风险取决于基础率。 在低患病率情况下，即使准确的检测也可能产生大量假阳性结果。
Number needed to treat and relative versus absolute risk are read against the baseline, not from the treatment label alone.
治疗所需人数以及相对风险与绝对风险的解读需基于基线水平，而不仅仅来自药物标签本身。
In a fictional closed cohort, 12 of 600 initially unaffected people develop a condition over one year, with complete follow-up.
在一个虚构的封闭队列中，600名初始未患病者中有12人在一年内发病，随访完整。 计算累积发病率。
Compute the cumulative incidence. If 30 of 750 people have it at a census, compute the prevalence.
如果在人口普查时，750人中有30人患病，计算患病率。
Cumulative incidence is new cases over the initially at-risk population, 12 over 600, which is 0.02, or 2 percent over one year.
累积发病率等于新发病例数除以初始易感人群，即12除以600，等于0.02，或一年内的2%。
Point prevalence is existing cases over the population at that time, 30 over 750, which is 0.04, or 4 percent.
时点患病率等于该时点的现患病例数除以该时点人口数，即30除以750，等于0.04，或4%。
The first is not a person-time incidence rate; the second includes old and new existing cases at the census.
前者不是人时发病率。 后者包含普查时的新旧现患病例。
Incidence counts new onsets in the window (two); prevalence counts cases at the snapshot (two).
发病率统计时间窗内的新发病例（两例）；患病率统计快照时刻的病例（两例）。
Read the labels before drawing a conclusion.
先读清标签，再下结论。
A fictional trial's risks over the same period are 4% in control and 3% in treatment.
某虚构试验在同一时期的风险分别为：对照组百分之四，治疗组百分之三。
Compute relative and absolute reduction and NNT, then qualify.
请计算相对降低率、绝对降低率和需治疗人数，并进行限定说明。
Pause before the model.
请先暂停，完成这道原创练习再继续。
The absolute risk reduction is the control risk minus the treatment risk, 0.04 minus 0.03, which is 0.01, or 1 percentage point.
绝对风险降低值等于对照组风险减去治疗组风险，即零点零四减零点零三，等于零点零一，或一个百分点。
The relative risk reduction is the absolute reduction over the control risk, 0.01 over 0.04, which is 0.25, or 25 percent.
相对风险降低值等于绝对降低值除以对照组风险，即零点零一除以零点零四，等于零点二五，或百分之二十五。
The number needed to treat is 1 over the absolute reduction, 1 over 0.01, which is 100 over the stated follow-up.
需治疗人数等于一除以绝对降低值，即一除以零点零一，在所述随访期内为一百。
These point estimates need uncertainty, harms and trial-quality review; they do not supply personal advice.
这些点估计值需要不确定性、危害性和试验质量审查；它们不提供个人建议。
Reporting a new-case count as prevalence, or quoting relative risk without the absolute baseline.
将新发病例数报告为患病率，或引用相对风险时未提供绝对基线。
State the source and the limits.
请注明数据来源及局限性。
A screening programme detects more cases.
筛查计划能发现更多病例。
Why could prevalence rise without a rise in new disease onset?
为什么患病率会上升，而新发病例数并未增加？
Pause and write a justified answer.
请先暂停，写出有依据的答案。