The Demographic Transition Model
Introduced| English |
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| Demographic Transition Model/ˌdeməˈɡræfɪk trænˈsɪʃn ˈmɒdl/ |
| epidemiological transition/ˌepɪˌdemɪəˈlɒdʒɪkl trænˈsɪʃn/ |
A model of population change
- The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) 人口转变模型 shows how birth and death rates change as a country develops.
- It has five stages, from pre-industrial to post-industrial.
- The gap between the two rates is the population boom or decline.
Death rate falls first
- Stage 1: high, fluctuating birth and death rates; slow growth.
- Stage 2: death rate falls (food, medicine, sanitation) but births stay high — population booms.
- Stage 3: birth rate falls (education, urbanisation, women working) — growth slows.
In Stage 2, the population booms mainly because...
Falling deaths + still-high births open a wide gap → the boom.
Select all reasons the birth rate falls in Stage 3.
Education, urbanisation, and schooling all lower fertility; a rising death rate does not.
Stability and decline
- Stage 4: low birth and death rates; population stable and large.
- Stage 5: birth rate falls below death rate; population declines and ages.
- The linked epidemiological transition 流行病学转变 shifts deaths from infectious to chronic disease.
Which DTM stage?
Sort each description into its DTM stage.
In Stage 5, the birth rate falls below the death rate, so the population declines.
Stage 5 = births below deaths → an ageing, shrinking population.
The shift of the main causes of death from infectious to chronic disease is the ____ transition.
The epidemiological transition accompanies the DTM.
Put the DTM changes in the order they happen.
Death rate always falls before the birth rate in the DTM.
A key exam point: in Stage 2, the population booms because the death rate falls while births stay high — not because births rise. Growth is fastest when the gap between the two rates is widest, not when births are highest.
In the 1800s, Britain entered Stage 2: sanitation and food cut the death rate, but families were still large. The population soared. Later (Stage 3), as women worked and children went to school not the fields, birth rates fell and growth slowed.
The DTM has five stages. The death rate falls first (Stage 2, population boom), then the birth rate falls (Stage 3, slowing). Stage 4 is stable; Stage 5 declines. The epidemiological transition shifts causes of death from infectious to chronic disease.